{"id":1492,"date":"2007-08-16T05:34:39","date_gmt":"2007-08-16T05:34:39","guid":{"rendered":"0"},"modified":"2007-08-16T07:01:58","modified_gmt":"2007-08-16T07:01:58","slug":"man_people_are","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/?p=1492","title":{"rendered":"Man, People Are So Gullible&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#8230;as long as the things they are gullible about confirm their prejudices.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ve got a newfound &#8211; <i>interest<\/i> &#8211; in military welfare these days. So I pay particular attention to news items that cross my computer screen that touch on issues about the welfare of our military.<\/p>\n<p>A few weeks ago, I saw the release about rising suicide rates in the military, and to be honest I was concerned.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><i>Army soldiers committed suicide last year at the highest rate in 26 years, and more than a quarter did so while serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to a new military report.<\/i><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>It just made <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2007\/08\/15\/AR2007081502027.html\" target=\"browser\">the Washington Post<\/a>, and was picked up by lefty blogs <a href=\"http:\/\/www.talkleft.com\/story\/2007\/8\/15\/23825\/2130\" target=\"browser\">TalkLeft<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/miaculpa.blogspot.com\/2007\/08\/dying-for-war-to-end.html\" target=\"browser\">Greatscat!<\/a>, who say &#8211; respectively &#8211; &#8220;<i>This war was not worth the price. We have a President who is unable or unwilling to acknowledge his mistakes. Experts agree the war in Iraq cannot be won militarily. So why are the troops still there? Let&#8217;s stop the funding and bring them home now.<\/i>&#8221; and &#8220;<i>Um, I wonder if Rove left spin instructions for this report&#8217;s release?<\/i>&#8221; <\/p>\n<p>Gosh, guys. It is a damn serious issue &#8211; because the rate is rising, and because one suicide is unknowably painful to the circle of the person who kills themselves.<\/p>\n<p>But you know, the first question I asked was &#8220;Gosh, I wonder how that compares to <b>normal<\/b> rates of suicide in the US?<\/p>\n<p>So I spent a whopping ten minutes looking up stats and building a small spreadsheet.<\/p>\n<p>So in 2004, there were a total of 14,328 suicides in the US in the age group 20 &#8211; 44 (the group that I think pretty well covers the population in Iraq &#8211; some are younger, some are older). the total population in 2004 in that age group was 104,259,000 &#8211; so the rate\/100,000 population was 15.25.<\/p>\n<p>And since the rate in the military is higher &#8211; significantly higher at 17.3\/100,000 overall and 19.9 for those serving in Iraq and Afghanistan &#8211; I was darn concerned.<\/p>\n<p>And then I asked one more question.<\/p>\n<p>Well, the suicide rates by sex are pretty different, I recalled. I wonder what happens if I sex-norm the suicide rates in the military?<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s an approximation (because the %of women in reserves is slightly higher, and I didn&#8217;t find the % serving in Iraq).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.defenselink.mil\/prhome\/poprep2004\/download\/2004report.pdf\" target=\"browser\">According to the DoD<\/a>, approximately 17% of US active-duty forces are women.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/webappa.cdc.gov\/sasweb\/ncipc\/leadcaus10.html\" target=\"browser\">According to the CDC<\/a>, the 20 &#8211; 44 population had 14,328 suicides in 2004. Of those, 11,460 were men, and 2,868 were women. The census gives an estimate for 2005 population from 20 &#8211; 44 as 52,513,000 men and 51,746,000 women.<\/p>\n<p>By my math, this gives a suicide rate of 21.82\/100,000 for men, and 5.54\/100,000 for women.<\/p>\n<p>If I norm the suicide rates by multiplying the sexes rate by the population in the military, I get (21.82*83%)+(5.54*17%)=19.06\/100,000.<\/p>\n<p>So the suicide rate among all active-duty troops is lower than the 2004 norm &#8211; even at the current high point &#8211; and the rate among combat troops is slightly above the norm.<\/p>\n<p>Does this mean it isn&#8217;t serious and that we shouldn&#8217;t put resources into PTSD treatment or that each suicide isn&#8217;t itself a tragedy? What do you think I believe&#8230;come on, of course.<\/p>\n<p>But is this a symptom of a military so brutalized by the horrors of service that they are killing themselves at an incredible rate?<\/p>\n<p>What do you believe I think? Why can&#8217;t people do some freaking homework before the leap to the Isle of Conclusion &#8211; that&#8217;s what I think.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Armed Liberal was very worried about suicides in the military until he did the math. Now he&#8217;s only a little worried.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1492"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1492"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1492\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}