Three articles caught my attention today, and I thought I’d pass them along with some quick comments before I have to go outside and grill dinner.<\/p>\n
First, Gary Hart – who I like and generally have wished would be one of the most-heard voices in the Democratic party on issues of national security has a – delusional? – post up at Huffpo<\/a>. His point, simply, is that we ought to expect a US airstrike on Iran before the 06 elections. An ‘October surprise’, as he calls it.<\/p>\n It should come as no surprise if the Bush Administration undertakes a preemptive war against Iran sometime before the November election.<\/p>\n \nWere these more normal times, this would be a stunning possibility, quickly dismissed by thoughtful people as dangerous, unprovoked, and out of keeping with our national character. But we do not live in normal times.<\/i><\/p><\/blockquote>\n Look, there are a lot of things to talk about in regards to the appropriate things to do in dealing with that dapper hipster<\/a> running Iran. Some people – including some of my co-bloggers – think that a bombing campaign as outlined by Hart for the fall sweeps<\/p>\n Therefore, he will announce, our own national security and the security of the region requires us to act. “Tonight, I have ordered the elimination of all facilities in Iran that are dedicated to the production of weapons of mass destruction…..” In the narrowest terms this includes perhaps two dozen targets.<\/p>\n \nBut the authors of the war on Iraq have “regime change” in mind in Iran. According to Colonel Sam Gardiner (author of “The End of the ‘Summer of Diplomacy’: Assessing U.S. Military Options in Iran,” The Century Foundation, 2006) to have any hope of success, such a policy would require attacking at least 400 targets, including the Revolutionary Guard. But even this presumes the Iranian people will respond to a massive U.S. attack on their country by overthrowing their government. Only an Administration inspired by pre-Enlightenment fantasy could believe a notion such as this.<\/i><\/p><\/blockquote>\n is the best idea since Marshmallow Fluff. I’m on record as thinking it’s a bad idea.<\/p>\n But politically, in the current environment – absent a YouTube video of Ahmadinejad personally machining plutonium hemispheres while pointing to a map of Washington DC – I can’t imagine that the US political reaction would be survivable for the GOP. And that once the Democrats were sworn in in January, that Bush would then be looking at some serious face time with the Judiciary Committee.<\/p>\n So, Gary – what the hell?<\/b> Do you think Karl Rove is that stupid?<\/p>\n