{"id":1234,"date":"2006-10-13T01:17:59","date_gmt":"2006-10-13T01:17:59","guid":{"rendered":"0"},"modified":"2006-10-13T01:18:56","modified_gmt":"2006-10-13T01:18:56","slug":"tim_orens_nucle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/?p=1234","title":{"rendered":"Tim Oren’s Nuclear Strawman"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the comments to my ‘Godfather<\/a>‘ post below, Tim Oren made a really smart comment<\/a> that elaborated on my idea and turned it into something vaguely practical:<\/p>\n

May I suggest an alternative framing that may find some common ground? In the commentary here and on Joe’s post there’s at minimum a volks-wisdom that we can grudgingly trust some newer nuke powers to act responsibly – India, Israel, China (let’s hope), but others we cannot: NK, Pakistan, Iran.<\/p>\n

Is question is how to convert that intuition into a framing that is understandable by all, not seen to be simply arbitrary, and is utterly convincing to transgressors in regards of their fate. It should also be able to survive the probably inevitable further proliferation of nuclear power reactors. In short, a de facto effective ‘Nuclear Proliferation Treaty<\/i>‘, with nasty, sharp, pointy teeth.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

A strawman:<\/p>\n

* All participating nuclear powers provide samples of output of their reactors to all other powers. If any power is ever caught not doing so, through the national intelligence means of any other power, they are out of the agreement.<\/p>\n

* All non-participating powers are in one equivalence class. They may come into compliance only by agreeing and conforming to the above, to the satisfaction of all the currently complying powers.<\/p>\n

* Any conventionally or unconventionally delivered nuke having the signature of one of the participating powers makes that party culpable. (A powerful incentive to report any fissile materials losses and enlist everyone in cleaning them up.)<\/p>\n

* Any conventionally or unconventionally delivered nuke having no known signature, or one known to originate from a noncompliant power by national intelligence means, means that all noncompliant powers are jointly culpable.<\/p>\n

* The target of an attack may deal with the culpable party or parties by any means it feels necessary. Other compliant powers may assist in this, but none will oppose.<\/p>\n

This might be stable if enough of the incumbent nuke powers agreed to it as a de facto doctrine. The disclosure part is close enough to the current, ineffective NPT compliance regime that that it might be workable, at least technically.<\/p>\n

Tear it up…<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I have a few issues – the notion that all noncomplaint powers are jointly responsible is something that will take some serious thought.<\/p>\n

But it actually may be a basis for a longer-term stable regime than the shotgun hooked to the piece of string proposal that I originally made, because a) it divides the nuclear world into those that embrace transparency and are willing to be held explicitly accountable, and those who are not; and b) it provides strong incentives to move from the latter to former category.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

My favorite kind of post – one that someone else writes!!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1234"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1234"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1234\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1234"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1234"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1234"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}