{"id":919,"date":"2005-11-23T14:27:55","date_gmt":"2005-11-23T14:27:55","guid":{"rendered":"0"},"modified":"2006-09-28T12:09:27","modified_gmt":"2006-09-28T12:09:27","slug":"polls_politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/?p=919","title":{"rendered":"Polls, Politics, And Bare Knuckles"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There&#8217;s a great line in &#8216;Enter The Dragon&#8217; where Bruce Lee, at the island martial arts tournament that figures in the film, is preparing to fight the big, scarred, violent-looking martial artist (Bob Wall) who killed his sister.<\/p>\n<p>Wall tosses a board up in the air, and shatters it midair with a blow.<\/p>\n<p>Lee looks at him, smiles slightly, and says: &#8220;Boards don&#8217;t hit back&#8221; and then proceeds to do a martial arts clinic on Wall&#8217;s body.<\/p>\n<p>I actually got to use a line like that once&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Looking over at Atrios&#8217; site today, I notice him <a href=\"http:\/\/atrios.blogspot.com\/2005_11_20_atrios_archive.html#113275428192533818\" target=\"browser\">rhapsodizing<\/a> about <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailykos.com\/storyonly\/2005\/11\/23\/13222\/916\" target=\"browser\">this map<\/a>, over on Daily Kos &#8211; showing the depth and geographic spread of national disapproval of President Bush.<\/p>\n<p>The first thought I had when I saw it was &#8220;<i>Polls don&#8217;t pass laws.<\/i>&#8221;<br \/>\nYes, Bush and his administration are struggling with their popularity. But the Republican Party is likely to survive the mid-term elections with control of Congress (thanks in no small part to gerrymandering), and it is likely that the GOP will continue to control the apparatus of power until 2008.<\/p>\n<p>Now polls do matter &#8211; just as breaking boards in midair matters in demonstrating martial arts expertise.<\/p>\n<p>But the problem with approval\/disapproval polls is that they don&#8217;t factor well for people like me &#8211;  who didn&#8217;t approve much of what Bush had done in 2004, but when looking at who he was running against, approved even less.<\/p>\n<p>As an example, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.slate.com\/id\/2130405\/&#038;#beattyreiner\" target=\"browser\">Kaus points us<\/a> at some recent California polls (where the Governator is doing about as badly as Bush in the polls) for two of his possible rivals &#8211;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><i>They don&#8217;t like you! They really don&#8217;t like you! Warren Beatty and Rob Reiner <a href=\"http:\/\/nalert.blogspot.com\/2005\/11\/reiner-beatty-lag-in-california-poll.html\" target=\"browser\">aren&#8217;t nearly as popular as their backers thought they were<\/a>, according to the latest Field Poll. Beatty&#8217;s rating is 40% unfavorable\/27% favorable&#8211;among Democrats!  Yikes. .. Reiner is at least more popular than unpopular within his own party, but overall his unfavorables outweigh his favorables among independents (34\/24) and overall (41\/25). &#8230;<\/i><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>So I keep bringing it home to two simple points:<\/p>\n<p># I&#8217;m not so convinced that &#8220;Not Bush&#8221; is a winning campaign strategy; can we possibly come up with some better ones?<\/p>\n<p>\n# And I&#8217;m absolutely convinced that if we could win an election with this, it&#8217;d be a recipe for disaster as a strategy for governing.<\/p>\n<p><b>Update:<\/b> Actually, there&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sacbee.com\/content\/politics\/story\/13895892p-14734760c.html\" target=\"browser\">a great article in the Bee<\/a> by Dan Walters that amplifies Mickey&#8217;s point, and extends it to the Governor&#8217;s other two Democratic challengers, Phil Angelides and Steve Wesley:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><i>And actor-directors Rob Reiner and Warren Beatty, who have been politically active of late and have been the subject of much speculation as potential Democratic challengers to Schwarzenegger, are also well-known, with roughly two-thirds of those surveyed holding opinions about them. But their images, if anything, are less favorable than Schwarzenegger&#8217;s with just 25 percent being positively disposed toward Reiner and 16 percent toward Beatty.<\/p>\n<p>\nAngelides and the other Democrat who&#8217;s publicly announced for the governorship, Controller Steve Westly, generate name-identification levels at half, or less, of those held by Reiner and Beatty and positive ratings equally as low &#8211; substantially lower than Schwarzenegger&#8217;s. Just 23 percent of voters hold a positive opinion of Angelides and 18 percent of Westly.<\/i><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>As I said before&#8230;&#8221;polls don&#8217;t pass laws.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Armed Liberal suggests that the Democratic Party take a lesson from Bruce Lee.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/919"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=919"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/919\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=919"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=919"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcdanziger.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=919"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}