One Theory About The New York Times Blown To Hell

So my reaction to the drumbeat of disclosures by the New York Times of classified military programs – even ones that were unquestionable legal, like SWIFT – had been that they had it in for George Bush and were using every opportunity to disclose news that would embarass and weaken him.

Boy, was I wrong. On Feb 23, the Times published this story:


U.S. Unit Secretly in Pakistan Lends Ally Support

BARA, Pakistan – More than 70 United States military advisers and technical specialists are secretly working in Pakistan to help its armed forces battle Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the country’s lawless tribal areas, American military officials said.

The Americans are mostly Army Special Forces soldiers who are training Pakistani Army and paramilitary troops, providing them with intelligence and advising on combat tactics, the officials said. They do not conduct combat operations, the officials added.

They make up a secret task force, overseen by the United States Central Command and Special Operations Command. It started last summer, with the support of Pakistan’s government and military, in an effort to root out Qaeda and Taliban operations that threaten American troops in Afghanistan and are increasingly destabilizing Pakistan. It is a much larger and more ambitious effort than either country has acknowledged.

Boy, that’s gonna go over well in Pakistan, isn’t it?

Could the NYT have done anything to make that program less effective or more of a political liability – for Obama?

Man, I’d love to know what the Times editors are thinking.

2010

 

I’m chewing over my response to Obama’s leaked decision to pull 90+K of the troops out of Iraq by mid-2010. Like everything, there is a positive and a negative side to it; while my real judgment will wait until I understand better why he justifies this, I’m very concerned that this is really a domestic decision as opposed to one based on the real needs there. That’s amplified by the reporting, which suggests that the generals on the ground managed to pull the deadline out a few months – meaning that Obama is negotiating against his generals, as opposed to supporting them in the context of his larger strategic decisions. That gives me kind of a cold, prickly feeling…

One thing I give GWB massive credit for is his decision to screw domestic politics and push the surge. Of course, if he’d done a better job managing domestic politics…

 

But I can’t help feeling like we’re close, and a little more patience might create the space for a more stable politics in Iraq. Then again, the Iraqi government gets the trump card in making these decisions.

So…this will take a lot more reading and thinking.

Cranks, Empiricists, and Sunlight

Thinking a bit this morning about the hoo-hah in the comments thread to my post on climate change meta-issues below, I started to surf around looking for people who were thinking about the same meta-issues. I don’t have a conclusion yet, but tripped over two interesting things.

The first was a blog supporting AGW and opposing the people who challenge it as ‘cranks, deniers, etc.’ and generally taking on Creationists, 9/11 Truthers, AIDS deniers, and AGW skeptics. Generally, it supports mainstream thinking and – indirectly – arguments from authority.

Here we will discuss the problem of denialists, their standard arguing techniques, how to identify denialists and/or cranks, and discuss topics of general interest such as skepticism, medicine, law and science. I’ll be taking on denialists in the sciences, while my brother, Chris, will be geared more towards the legal and policy implications of industry groups using denialist arguments to prevent sound policies.

First of all, we have to get some basic terms defined for all of our new readers.

Denialism is the employment of rhetorical tactics to give the appearance of argument or legitimate debate, when in actuality there is none. These false arguments are used when one has few or no facts to support one’s viewpoint against a scientific consensus or against overwhelming evidence to the contrary. They are effective in distracting from actual useful debate using emotionally appealing, but ultimately empty and illogical assertions.

I’m generally sympathetic to this view; I hear from 9/11 truthers periodically on an email list I’m on, and I don’t have a lot of time for their claims.

But then, I also found an article on the importance of fact-checking scientific claims (pdf).

Yes, it’s sponsored by a libertarian, corporatist Canadian think tank – but discounting for that, the claims made, and the conclusion of the article made lots and lots of sense to me.

In recent years, there has been considerable attention paid to the question of whether financial statements and other data from corporations are adequately reviewed prior to release. An analogous question concerns the data and findings in academic papers which sometimes influence public sector decisions. Disclosure of data and code for the purpose of permitting independent replication in no way intrudes on or imperils academic freedom; instead, it should be seen as essential to good scientific practice, as well as a contribution to better public decisionmaking.

The article cites a litany of scientific and research error and malpractice, all shielded by stonewalling. Over the next few days, I’m going to dig into the ones I don’t know about, and see what I can find (I’d welcome assistance…); if the point of this article is that we need to check the math in research that’s given to us, we need to extend the same level of scrutiny to the claims in the article itself.

But here are the stories it tells, and a few comments of my own.

The ‘Harvard Six Cities’ study

In 1993, a team of researchers led by D.W. Dockery and C.A. Pope published a study in the New England Journal of Medicine supposedly showing a statistically significant correlation between atmospheric fine particulate levels and premature mortality in six US cities (Dockery, Pope, et al., 1993). The “Harvard Six Cities” (HSC) study, as it came to be called, attracted considerable attention and has since been repeatedly cited in assessment reports, including those prepared for the Ontario government, the Toronto board of public health and the Ontario medical association. In each case the reports have used the HSC study to recommend tighter air quality standards or other costly pollution control measures.

…after continuing pressure, Dockery and Pope gave their data to a third party research group called the Health Effects Institute (HEI), which agreed to conduct an audit of the findings. In 2000, fully six years after the CASAC request, and three years after the new air quality regulations had been introduced, the HEI completed its reanalysis. The audit of the HSC data reported no material problems in replicating the original results, though there were a few coding errors (Health Effects Institute, 2000). However, their sensitivity analysis showed the risk originally attributed to particles became insignificant when sulphur dioxide was included in the model, and the estimated health effects differed by educational attainment and region, weakening the plausibility of the original findings (Heuss and Wolff, 2006).

The Boston Fed Study

Although there had been political pressure on banks to increase lending to minorities, there was no legitimate justification for doing so until the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston released a now-famous working paper in 1992 entitled Mortgage Lending in Boston: InterpretingHMDAData, which purported to show widespread discrimination against minorities in the Boston mortgage market. This led to a series of rapid rule changes affecting bank lending practices. These coincided with passage of the 1992 Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act, which forced Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to accept sub-prime loans, thus removing from the banks the risks associated with making bad loans.

Day and Liebowitz (1998) filed a Freedom of Information Act request to obtain identifiers for these observations so they could re-run the analysis without them. They also noted that the Boston Fed did not use the applicant’s credit score as generated by the bank, but had replaced it with three alternate indicators they themselves constructed, which Day and Liebowitz found had omitted many standard indicators of creditworthiness. Day and Liebowitz showed that simply reverting to the bank’s own credit score and correcting the 26 misclassified observations caused the discrimination coefficient to drop to zero.

I’ve looked a little bit into this one, and there are a set of newer papers that suggest that there is some impact of race on loan approvals for marginally qualified candidates, as well as other newer papers that suggest that there is no impact.

The “hockey stick” graph

OK, now I’m sure it’ll get ugly.

The Mann, Bradley, and Hughes (1998; 1999) “hockey stick” graph, shown in figure 1, was a key piece of evidence used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its 2001 Third Assessment Report to conclude that humans are causing climate change (Working Group I, IPCC, 2001, ch. 2, fig. 2.7c and ch. 2, fig. 2.20). The graph has a striking visual effect, suggesting the Earth’s climate (represented by the average northern hemisphere temperature) was stable for nine centuries prior to industrialization, then underwent a rapid warming in the 20th century. The hockey stick graph appeared five times in the Third Assessment Report, each time in an unusually large and colorful format compared to other data series. It was widely reproduced on government web sites around the world and played an influential role in the debates that took place in many countries between 2001 and 2004 over whether to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

In 2005, the House Science Committee asked the National Research Council (NRC) to investigate the controversy over the hockey stick. Prior to beginning its work, the NRC revised its terms of reference to exclude any specific assessment of Mann’s work. The Energy and Commerce Committee then asked Edward Wegman, Professor of Statistics at George Mason University and Chairman of the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Theoretical and Applied Statistics, to assemble a separate panel to assess Mann’s methods and results. The NRC report ended up critiquing the hockey stick anyway, noting that it failed key statistical significance tests (National Research Council, 2006: 91), relied on invalid bristlecone data for its shape (pp. 50, 106-7), used a PC technique that biased the shape (p. 106), and, like other proxy reconstructions that followed it, systematically underestimated the associated uncertainties (p. 107). The Wegman panel report was published in July 2006 (Wegman et al., 2006). It upheld the findings of McIntyre and McKitrick (p. 4). Among other things, the panel reported that, despite downloading the materials from Mann’s web site, they were unable to replicate the hockey stick results (p. 29).

Given the controversy around this issue, it’s important to note the modesty of their concluding paragraph:

The hockey stick episode illustrates, among other things, the inability or unwillingness of granting agencies, academic societies, and journals to enforce disclosure to a degree sufficient for the purposes of replication. Government intervention in this case resulted in release of essential code. Unless granting agencies and journals deal with this issue forcefully, policy makers should be prepared to accept a responsibility to act if their decisions are going to be based on the findings of unreplicated academic research.

The US obesity epidemic

In March 2004, the Journal of the American Medical Association published a paper by Dr. Julie Gerberding, Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and three other staff scientists, claiming that being overweight caused the deaths of 400,000 Americans annually, up from 300,000 in 1990 (Mokdad, Marks, Stroup, and Gerberding, 2004). This study, and the 400,000 deaths figure, was the subject of considerable media attention and was immediately cited by then-US Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson in a March 9, 2004 press release announcing a major new public policy initiative on obesity, a $20 million increase in funding for obesity-related programs and a further $40 million increase the following year (US Department of Health and Human Services, 2004).

The CDC soon found itself under intense criticism over the chaotic statistics and the issue of whether internal dissent was suppressed. In response, it appointed an internal review panel to investigate, but the resulting report has never been made public. Some portions were released after Freedom of Information requests were made. The report makes scathing comments about the poor quality of the Gerberding study, the lack of expertise of the authors, the use of outdated data, and the political overtones to the paper (Couzin, 2005). The report also found that the authors knew their work was flawed prior to publication but that since all the authors were attached to the Office of the Director, internal reviewers did not press for revisions.

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

In late 2004, a summary report entitled the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) was released by the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental organization formed to discuss policy issues related to the Arctic region. The council had convened a team of scientists to survey available scientific information related to climate change and the Arctic. Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Highlights (Arctic Council, 2004) was released to considerable international media fanfare, and prompted hearings before a US Senate committee on November 16, 2004 (the full report did not appear until August 2005). Among other things, the Highlights document stated that the Arctic region was warming faster than the rest of the world, that the Arctic was now warmer than at any time since the late 19th century, that sea-ice extent had declined 15 to 20 percent over the past 30 years and that the area of Greenland susceptible to melting had increased by 16 percent in the past 30 years.

Shortly after its publication, critics started noting on web sites that the main summary graph (Arctic Council, 2004, Highlights: 4) showing unprecedented warmth in the Arctic had never appeared in a peer-reviewed journal (Taylor, 2004; Soon, Baliunas, Legates, and Taylor, 2004), and the claims of unprecedented warming were at odds with numerous published Arctic climate histories in the peer-reviewed literature (Michaels, 2004). Neither the data used nor an explanation of the graph’s methodology were made available (Taylor, 2004; Soon, Baliunas, Legates, and Taylor, 2004). When the final report was released eight months later, it explained that they had used only land-based weather stations, even though the region is two-thirds ocean, and had re-defined the boundaries of the Arctic southwards to 60N, thereby including some regions of Siberia with poor quality data and anomalously strong warming trends. Other recently published climatology papers that used land- and ocean-based data had concluded that the Arctic was, on average, cooler than it had been in the late 1930s (Polyakov et al., 2002). But while these studies were cited in the full report, their findings were not mentioned as caveats against the dramatic conclusions of the ACIA summary, nor were their data sets presented graphically.

The Donato study of post-fire logging and forest regeneration

On January 5, 2006, an article entitled “Post-wildfire logging hinders regeneration and increases fire risk” appeared in Science Express, the pre-publication venue for accepted articles in Science (Donato, Fontaine, Campbell, Robinson, Kauffman, and Law, 2006a). The paper examined logging activity in Oregon’s Biscuit Forest following a 2002 fire. It argued that logging reduced by 71 percent the density of viable seedlings during the recovery period, and led to an accumulation of slash on the ground, increasing potential fuel levels for future fires. The article drew attention to legislation pending before the US Congress, H.R. 4200, which mandated rapid salvage logging on federal lands following a fire. The authors concluded that post-fire logging “can be counterproductive to stated goals of post-fire forest regeneration.” The article was quickly cited by opponents of H.R. 4200 as authoritative scientific evidence against it (eg., Earth Justice, 2006).

In their response, Donato, Fontaine, Campbell, Robinson, Kauffman, and Law (2006c) acknowledged that their findings were less general than their title suggested, but they defended their sampling methodology and conclusions. At this point their critics asked to inspect the data and the sites where the data were gathered. The authors refused to disclose this information. Following publication of the exchange in Science, Newton and coauthors have repeatedly requested the underlying data collected at the measurement sites, as well as the locations of the specific sample sites, so they can examine how the seedling density measurements were done. These requests have been refused by Donato and coauthors (J. Sessions, pers. comm.), as have been similar data requests from Congressman Baird (Skinner, 2006).

The Bellesiles affair

Here’s one I have some pretty intimate knowledge of.

In 2000, to great fanfare, Knopf Publishing released Arming America: The Origins of a National Gun Culture. Written by Michael A. Bellesiles, then a professor of history at Emory University, the book purported to show that prior to the Civil War, guns were rare in America and Americans had little interest in owning guns. Other history professors wrote glowing reviews of the book: Garry Wills in the New York Times Review of Books, Edmund Morgan in the New York Review of Books, and Fred Anderson in the Los Angeles Times. The Washington Post did publish a critical review (Chambers, October 29, 2000), but it was a rarity. The book was promptly awarded Columbia University’s prestigious “Bancroft Prize” for its contribution to American history.

Despite the political importance of the topic, professional historians did not actively scrutinize Bellesiles’ thesis. Instead it was non-historians who began the process of due diligence. Stephen Halbrook, a lawyer, checked the probate records for Thomas Jefferson’s three estates (Halbrook, 2000). He found no record of any firearm, despite the fact that Jefferson is known to have been a lifelong owner of firearms, putting into question the usefulness of probate records for the purpose. Soon after, a software engineer named Clayton Cramer began checking Bellesiles’ sources. Cramer, who has a master’s degree in history, found dates changed and quotations substantively altered. However, Cramer was unable to get academic journals to publish his findings. Instead he began sending articles to magazines such as the National Review Online and Shotgun News. He compiled an extensive list of errors, numbering in the hundreds, and went so far as to scan original documents and post them on his website so historians would check the original documents against the text of Bellesiles’ book (Cramer, 2006).

Here’s a case where the initial critics were backhanded and dismissed as cranks by the author, and by many in the field – until the weight of evidence simply collapsed Bellesiles’ case completely.

Referring to Clayton Cramer, Bellesiles said, “It is not my intention to give an introductory history lesson, but as a non-historian, Mr. Cramer may not appreciate that historians do not just chronicle the past, but attempt to analyze events and ideas while providing contexts for documents” (Bellesiles, 2001).

They cite other studies, and miss citing still others – like that of Dr. Andrew Wakefield, who apparently falsified data about a study linking thimerosol in vaccines to autism – which study led to an unknown number of children not getting potentially life-saving vaccinations.

Personally, I side with both the anti-crank blog authors and the challengers in the paper pointing out the deficiencies in widely publicized, honored, mainstream science that has become the root of policy.

But as a matter of principle and action, I think I side with the paper’s authors core agenda – which is that papers which purport to tell scientific truths through statistical analysis need to release both raw data and code or pseudocode so that others can validate it.

My first serious science class – high school physics as a freshman – taught me that science was the art of making repeatable observations and drawing conclusions from them. Repeatable is a key word here, because it implies that science is, above all, empirical and intersubjective.

We need to base our policy decisions on science; that is science that is, above all, repeatable. This implies a level of transparency in the scientific and academic establishment which is often lacking.

Let’s fix that. And then we can make decisions based on something at least somewhat empirical, and hold the cranks and denialists up to the light of the sun.

It’s For Posterity

Over at Normblog, Norm Geras (one of the UK’s best bloggers!!) posted a challenge:

The story is that, civilization approaching its possible doom (not really, but it’s the premise of the poll), the normblog readership has been assigned the task of assembling for posterity a representative collection of the Arts of Humankind, to be preserved in a sealed container so that some future beings of intelligence, discernment and taste can discover it and be impressed. That’s you and me, and also you. What we all have to do is to nominate under the following 12 headings those artists whose work we would like to see going into the sealed container…

I’m going to cheat and do it twice, once for people who I think everyone should agree must be there – “Standards”, and once for people who I think might not be so well-known “Upstarts” – who are likely to be my personal choices.

Everyone / Upstart

1. Poet – Homer / Mark Doty
2. Playwright – Shakespeare / Tom Stoppard
3. Novelist – Vladimir Nabokov / Jim Harrison
4. Composer – Johannes Sebastian Bach / Igor Stravinsky
5. Jazz musician – Miles Davis / Joe Williams
6. Rock or pop star/group – The Who / The Clash
7. Country music ditto – The Carter Family / Johnny Cash
8. Movie director – Francis Ford Coppola / John Ford
9. Painter – Picasso / Marie Cassat
10. Photographer – Imogen Cunningham / W. Eugene Smith
11. Sculptor – Constantin Brancusi / Joseph Cornell
12. Architect – Christopher Wren / Frank Gehry

Drop Norm an email and play yourself…

Climate Change and Bar Fights

So was reading John Quiggin over at Crooked Timber writing about climate change, and something crystallized in my thinking a bit.

Here’s Quiggin:

In one sense, the blogosphere has reached a near-universal consensus on climate change. Everyone who follows the issue at all closely agrees that there is no real debate. Instead, it’s generally agreed, we have a situation where (1) a large body of people devoted to serious scientific research is confronted by (2) pushers of silly Internet talking points who are ideologically motivated, financially driven or just plain delusional . The only disagreement is which group is which.

I’ll get to my own beliefs and prescriptions in a bit; what’s interesting to me is that Quiggin neatly sets out what makes me so uncomfortable with the state of the argument today. It’s the tone of the people who are pushing hard for Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW).

In my somewhat misspent youth, I put myself in places where I often encountered stupidly aggressive people. Bars. And there’s an interesting point about aggressive people in bars; you should pay close attention to the ones who are loudly threatening to kick your ass – but you don’t need to be afraid of them. Because if they were serious, they would already be kicking your ass, not just telling you about it.

Two things put my environmental-regulation-loving, hybrid-driving, solar-panel powered self off from supporting AGW and the policies that fall out from it:

1. The bullying tone of the supporters of AGW. Look, if you’ve got the facts and the science, you don’t need to try and rhetorically drive people out of the debate. But if you don’t…

2. The fact that many (not all) of the supporters of AGW are people who also – for a variety of reasons good and bad – have issues with “the dominant paradigm” of Western industrial society. It’s kind of like the local Lothario discovering that nude hot oil massages are the key to preventing some kind of fatal disease.

As someone who knows something (certainly not everything) about physical sciences and complex systems, I can say with some certainty that there is no way in hell that the level of certainty in the data we have supports an absolute society-restructuring belief in AGW. We’re talking about something vastly more complex than markets, and yet with a smidgen of data and a few complex computer models we have a group of bright people assuring us that absolutely they know what’s going to happen next.

Note how well that worked out in the financial markets…

At the same time, it’s hard to argue that we are taking on some unknown risk – a risk that could be catastrophic – by dumping ever-increasing amounts of anything into the environment. So maybe it makes sense – a lot of sense – to do what we can as quickly as we can to minimize our byproducts.

The devil is in defining “what we can” and “as quickly as we can.” Some people – Quiggin certainly among them – don’t like industrial capitalism much for reasons of their own, and arguably see this – the deep regulation necessary to reverse our carbon impacts – as both good for its own sake and good because it will provide an opportunity to move society closer to the desired model.

I have a good friend who is a senior official in a national agency tasked with environmental management, and we’ve talked about this; how the same people who argued that resource constraints and population growth required that we remake society; then species protection; now climate change. The constant is the need to remake society and the issues are sellable justifications for why it should be done.

I’m not so interested in remaking society; but I do worry about the impacts of climate change.

My response on AGW is somewhat different than Quiggins, and more like the “on one hand, and on the other” that many AGW proponents criticize.

We have some data which is highly suggestive of an impact by human activity on climate. Even if we accept the existence of the impact, and its significance in changing a naturally-variable climate, its extent is hard to determine with the information we have. But in the worst reasonable cases, by the time we have enough data, it may be too late to act in any meaningful way.

So we should act.

Our inefficient dependence on oil and coal wastes finite, valuable resources, creates pollution, has significant geopolitical impacts, and possibly worsens out climate.

There are a variety of painless things we could do to be more efficient, and we should do them immediately.

There are a variety of things we can and should do to improve efficiency and security, like building a smarter electric grid and beginning to decentralize power production, which also have positive impacts on overall energy efficiency and our climate impacts. We should do them quickly.

And there are harder, more complex things we should do – from changing land use development patterns to adding nuclear power – and we should be looking hard at them with an eye to deciding on what we can do soon.

That seems like a set of positions it would be relatively easy to build a consensus on, and one that could lead to relatively quick and somewhat effective action. No one has to – or needs to – bully anyone else, we just start doing it.

And that, perhaps, is the most challenging step of all.

Happy Birthday, Biggest Guy!!

Readers of this blog know how proud I am of my sons. Here they are at my oldest’s graduation from Basic Training last year:

3_boys.jpg

Today is Biggest Guy’s 25th birthday, and I can’t begin to tell you how happy he’s made me for all 25 years.

Because I see my job as harassing, abusing, and embarassing my children at every opportunity (to prepare them for the shocks of adult life…), let me publicly share some photos.
c. 1999

Boat.jpg

c. 1998

BG_MG_snow.jpg

c.1988

Hearns.jpg
Yes, his mom dressed him. And yes, she’s French!

What’s The Right Price For Housing??

There’s a lot of discussion of Obama’s (and some state governments’) housing bailout plans. Several measures are designed to provide price support for housing – the tax credits for purchases, as well as the newly announced refinance option for troubled homeowners.

The goal of these policies is clear; they want to try and arrest the slide in home values (and so personal wealth) and provide a backbone to the consumer economy.

But…

…are they the right thing to do?? There’s a separate argument about whether they will work, but let’s skip over that.
One thing that’s concerned me over the years has been what I perceive to be an overall overinvestment in housing. The fact is that too much of our national capital is tied up in what is really a consumption item – private housing – and not in businesses, infrastructure, or other places where more wealth and capital can be created.

Let’s talk for a second about what I mean by ‘overinvestment.’ Today, the average starter home is 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a 2-car garage, and 2,000+ square feet. When my dad built GI homes after WWII, they were 2 bedrooms, one bath, carport, and 900+ square feet. But we have reset our expectations, and even affordable (ownership) housing now must be better than that.

And the speculative approach to housing has fed the problem; because if houses are going to go up 10%, you’re better off owning a $600,000 house than a $300,000 one. So we all overbuy housing and tell ourselves a) it’s our right as consumers to live like this – island kitchens, granite countertops; and b) that it’s a good ‘investment’.

And as a consequence, we tie up a substantial portion of our national capital in homes. Yes, they trigger other economic activity – someone has to install the countertops – but in reality we’d be better off is that capital (and labor) had been invested in productive assets. (Note: there are a broad set of issues in international finance that this decision triggers that are well worth having, but not here and now).

So – if that’s the case, why dump more capital into preserving home prices and maintaining their inflated importance in our economy??

Why not let them fall to a sustainably lower level, and use the capital elsewhere?

A few reasons come to mind. First that the capital lost when home prices go down doesn’t magically appear somewhere else. It’s lost, debited from the national books, with no corresponding new asset to take its place. Second that the followon effect of homeowners (like me!!) seeing hundreds of thousands of dollars in household wealth suddenly evaporate won’t be pretty.

From my point of view, I think we need to do something about declines in home prices (personally, I’d be a little more modest, and offer credit to banks that agreed to lower interest rates for existing borrowers in targeted markets, and possibly offer upside-down homeowners direct credits to stay in place in the form of secured junior liens (to get something back when prices go back up). But I’d also like – a lot – to see policies aimed at moderating the overdiversion of national assets to housing as the cycle moves toward recovery.

Talk About Constituent Service…

A friend just popped up on IM to tell me quite a story…

*my friend*: hey, you there??

*my friend*: you won’t believe what just happened to me. I called Ted Leiu’s office this morning (our state sen here in El Seg [actually an Assembly member…A.L.]) to complain about the new budget bill. The woman on the phone was totally dismissive of me and literally hung up on me. So i called her back to ask her if she hung up on me. i made standard comments about how she worked for the people and that was no way to treat people who have an opinion. She asked me for my name, address and phone number and i gave them willingly.

*my friend*: Just now, a uniformed CHP officer showed up at my door to ask me some questions about the call. Ted Leiu’s office called the CHP and said that i was some sort of danger. When asked if i had been aggressive or used profane language, they said no, but we are worried about him. So the CHP officer, who was very nice and totally understood my position, said that since they turned in a complaint, he had to follow up on it. And that the visit would require a notation in their files about the visit.

*my friend*: the reason i had called to begin with was to tell Ted Leiu that I was strongly considering moving out of the state based on this new budget and the lack of seriousness in Sac. Now, i am really thinking about it

*me*: I’m here….

*me*: reading…one sec

*me*: that’s fricking outrageous…

*my friend*: yeah. kinda funny but really kind of scary

*me*: worse than that….

*me*: gut check…you can be intense

*me*: what was your affect on the phone??

*my friend*: the cop even told me that he asked them if i was threatening or profane and they said no.

*me*: wow…that’s outrageous…

*my friend*: i was pissed off when the woman hung up on me and i called back to ask if she had done that. i used the old line about, “Don’t you work for the people?” and i think that pissed her off

*me*: tough

*me*: she needs thicker skin

*my friend*: i was not mean or rude but i was angry that i was being dismissed

*my friend*: i really think it is time to leave. i dont want to be the “last jew out of prague”

*my friend*: when you see a large CHP officer at the door asking if you are the one who called your senator’s office, that is scary

I’ll restate my real-time reaction – that’s fricking outrageous. I’ve sent an email off to Lieu’s office and will post any response I get.

But here are the facts as I know them. A fellow constituent – I’m in Lieu’s district as well – calls to register his unhappiness with the new budget (I’m working on a post about it – personally, I think it’s a pretty good one under the circumstances, and disagree with my friend), and feels blown off by the person whose job it is to listen to him and communicate his views. She hangs up on him, and when he calls her back to challenge her on her behavior, she uses the power of the state to send an armed state law officer calling on my friend.

Absent some pretty significant bad behavior by my friend – and I’m guessing he’s honest enough with me that in a personal communication like the one above, he’d have acknowledged it – there is simply no excuse whatsoever for this.

A Day Late


The Perpetuation of Our Political Institutions:
Address By Abraham Lincoln Before the Young Men’s Lyceum of Springfield, Illinois
January 27, 1838


As a subject for the remarks of the evening, the perpetuation of our political institutions, is selected.

In the great journal of things happening under the sun, we, the American People, find our account running, under date of the nineteenth century of the Christian era.–We find ourselves in the peaceful possession, of the fairest portion of the earth, as regards extent of territory, fertility of soil, and salubrity of climate. We find ourselves under the government of a system of political institutions, conducing more essentially to the ends of civil and religious liberty, than any of which the history of former times tells us. We, when mounting the stage of existence, found ourselves the legal inheritors of these fundamental blessings. We toiled not in the acquirement or establishment of them–they are a legacy bequeathed us, by a once hardy, brave, and patriotic, but now lamented and departed race of ancestors. Their’s was the task (and nobly they performed it) to possess themselves, and through themselves, us, of this goodly land; and to uprear upon its hills and its valleys, a political edifice of liberty and equal rights; ’tis ours only, to transmit these, the former, unprofaned by the foot of an invader; the latter, undecayed by the lapse of time and untorn by usurpation, to the latest generation that fate shall permit the world to know. This task of gratitude to our fathers, justice to ourselves, duty to posterity, and love for our species in general, all imperatively require us faithfully to perform.

How then shall we perform it?–At what point shall we expect the approach of danger? By what means shall we fortify against it?– Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the Ocean, and crush us at a blow? Never!–All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years.

At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.I hope I am over wary; but if I am not, there is, even now, something of ill-omen, amongst us. I mean the increasing disregard for law which pervades the country; the growing disposition to substitute the wild and furious passions, in lieu of the sober judgment of Courts; and the worse than savage mobs, for the executive ministers of justice. This disposition is awfully fearful in any community; and that it now exists in ours, though grating to our feelings to admit, it would be a violation of truth, and an insult to our intelligence, to deny. Accounts of outrages committed by mobs, form the every-day news of the times. They have pervaded the country, from New England to Louisiana;–they are neither peculiar to the eternal snows of the former, nor the burning suns of the latter;–they are not the creature of climate– neither are they confined to the slave-holding, or the non-slave- holding States. Alike, they spring up among the pleasure hunting masters of Southern slaves, and the order loving citizens of the land of steady habits.–Whatever, then, their cause may be, it is common to the whole country.

It would be tedious, as well as useless, to recount the horrors of all of them. Those happening in the State of Mississippi, and at St. Louis, are, perhaps, the most dangerous in example and revolting to humanity. In the Mississippi case, they first commenced by hanging the regular gamblers; a set of men, certainly not following for a livelihood, a very useful, or very honest occupation; but one which, so far from being forbidden by the laws, was actually licensed by an act of the Legislature, passed but a single year before. Next, negroes, suspected of conspiring to raise an insurrection, were caught up and hanged in all parts of the State: then, white men, supposed to be leagued with the negroes; and finally, strangers, from neighboring States, going thither on business, were, in many instances subjected to the same fate. Thus went on this process of hanging, from gamblers to negroes, from negroes to white citizens, and from these to strangers; till, dead men were seen literally dangling from the boughs of trees upon every road side; and in numbers almost sufficient, to rival the native Spanish moss of the country, as a drapery of the forest.

Turn, then, to that horror-striking scene at St. Louis. A single victim was only sacrificed there. His story is very short; and is, perhaps, the most highly tragic, if anything of its length, that has ever been witnessed in real life. A mulatto man, by the name of McIntosh, was seized in the street, dragged to the suburbs of the city, chained to a tree, and actually burned to death; and all within a single hour from the time he had been a freeman, attending to his own business, and at peace with the world.

Such are the effects of mob law; and such as the scenes, becoming more and more frequent in this land so lately famed for love of law and order; and the stories of which, have even now grown too familiar, to attract any thing more, than an idle remark.

But you are, perhaps, ready to ask, “What has this to do with the perpetuation of our political institutions?” I answer, it has much to do with it. Its direct consequences are, comparatively speaking, but a small evil; and much of its danger consists, in the proneness of our minds, to regard its direct, as its only consequences. Abstractly considered, the hanging of the gamblers at Vicksburg, was of but little consequence. They constitute a portion of population, that is worse than useless in any community; and their death, if no pernicious example be set by it, is never matter of reasonable regret with any one. If they were annually swept, from the stage of existence, by the plague or small pox, honest men would, perhaps, be much profited, by the operation.–Similar too, is the correct reasoning, in regard to the burning of the negro at St. Louis. He had forfeited his life, by the perpetuation of an outrageous murder, upon one of the most worthy and respectable citizens of the city; and had not he died as he did, he must have died by the sentence of the law, in a very short time afterwards. As to him alone, it was as well the way it was, as it could otherwise have been.–But the example in either case, was fearful.–When men take it in their heads to day, to hang gamblers, or burn murderers, they should recollect, that, in the confusion usually attending such transactions, they will be as likely to hang or burn some one who is neither a gambler nor a murderer as one who is; and that, acting upon the example they set, the mob of to-morrow, may, and probably will, hang or burn some of them by the very same mistake. And not only so; the innocent, those who have ever set their faces against violations of law in every shape, alike with the guilty, fall victims to the ravages of mob law; and thus it goes on, step by step, till all the walls erected for the defense of the persons and property of individuals, are trodden down, and disregarded. But all this even, is not the full extent of the evil.–By such examples, by instances of the perpetrators of such acts going unpunished, the lawless in spirit, are encouraged to become lawless in practice; and having been used to no restraint, but dread of punishment, they thus become, absolutely unrestrained.–Having ever regarded Government as their deadliest bane, they make a jubilee of the suspension of its operations; and pray for nothing so much, as its total annihilation. While, on the other hand, good men, men who love tranquility, who desire to abide by the laws, and enjoy their benefits, who would gladly spill their blood in the defense of their country; seeing their property destroyed; their families insulted, and their lives endangered; their persons injured; and seeing nothing in prospect that forebodes a change for the better; become tired of, and disgusted with, a Government that offers them no protection; and are not much averse to a change in which they imagine they have nothing to lose. Thus, then, by the operation of this mobocractic spirit, which all must admit, is now abroad in the land, the strongest bulwark of any Government, and particularly of those constituted like ours, may effectually be broken down and destroyed–I mean the attachment of the People. Whenever this effect shall be produced among us; whenever the vicious portion of population shall be permitted to gather in bands of hundreds and thousands, and burn churches, ravage and rob provision-stores, throw printing presses into rivers, shoot editors, and hang and burn obnoxious persons at pleasure, and with impunity; depend on it, this Government cannot last. By such things, the feelings of the best citizens will become more or less alienated from it; and thus it will be left without friends, or with too few, and those few too weak, to make their friendship effectual. At such a time and under such circumstances, men of sufficient talent and ambition will not be wanting to seize the opportunity, strike the blow, and overturn that fair fabric, which for the last half century, has been the fondest hope, of the lovers of freedom, throughout the world.

I know the American People are much attached to their Government;–I know they would suffer much for its sake;–I know they would endure evils long and patiently, before they would ever think of exchanging it for another. Yet, notwithstanding all this, if the laws be continually despised and disregarded, if their rights to be secure in their persons and property, are held by no better tenure than the caprice of a mob, the alienation of their affections from the Government is the natural consequence; and to that, sooner or later, it must come.

Here then, is one point at which danger may be expected.

The question recurs, “how shall we fortify against it?” The answer is simple. Let every American, every lover of liberty, every well wisher to his posterity, swear by the blood of the Revolution, never to violate in the least particular, the laws of the country; and never to tolerate their violation by others. As the patriots of seventy-six did to the support of the Declaration of Independence, so to the support of the Constitution and Laws, let every American pledge his life, his property, and his sacred honor;–let every man remember that to violate the law, is to trample on the blood of his father, and to tear the character of his own, and his children’s liberty. Let reverence for the laws, be breathed by every American mother, to the lisping babe, that prattles on her lap–let it be taught in schools, in seminaries, and in colleges; let it be written in Primers, spelling books, and in Almanacs;–let it be preached from the pulpit, proclaimed in legislative halls, and enforced in courts of justice. And, in short, let it become the political religion of the nation; and let the old and the young, the rich and the poor, the grave and the gay, of all sexes and tongues, and colors and conditions, sacrifice unceasingly upon its altars.

While ever a state of feeling, such as this, shall universally, or even, very generally prevail throughout the nation, vain will be every effort, and fruitless every attempt, to subvert our national freedom.

When I so pressingly urge a strict observance of all the laws, let me not be understood as saying there are no bad laws, nor that grievances may not arise, for the redress of which, no legal provisions have been made.–I mean to say no such thing. But I do mean to say, that, although bad laws, if they exist, should be repealed as soon as possible, still while they continue in force, for the sake of example, they should be religiously observed. So also in unprovided cases. If such arise, let proper legal provisions be made for them with the least possible delay; but, till then, let them, if not too intolerable, be borne with.

There is no grievance that is a fit object of redress by mob law. In any case that arises, as for instance, the promulgation of abolitionism, one of two positions is necessarily true; that is, the thing is right within itself, and therefore deserves the protection of all law and all good citizens; or, it is wrong, and therefore proper to be prohibited by legal enactments; and in neither case, is the interposition of mob law, either necessary, justifiable, or excusable.

But, it may be asked, why suppose danger to our political institutions? Have we not preserved them for more than fifty years? And why may we not for fifty times as long?

We hope there is no sufficient reason. We hope all dangers may be overcome; but to conclude that no danger may ever arise, would itself be extremely dangerous. There are now, and will hereafter be, many causes, dangerous in their tendency, which have not existed heretofore; and which are not too insignificant to merit attention. That our government should have been maintained in its original form from its establishment until now, is not much to be wondered at. It had many props to support it through that period, which now are decayed, and crumbled away. Through that period, it was felt by all, to be an undecided experiment; now, it is understood to be a successful one.–Then, all that sought celebrity and fame, and distinction, expected to find them in the success of that experiment. Their all was staked upon it:– their destiny was inseparably linked with it. Their ambition aspired to display before an admiring world, a practical demonstration of the truth of a proposition, which had hitherto been considered, at best no better, than problematical; namely, the capability of a people to govern themselves. If they succeeded, they were to be immortalized; their names were to be transferred to counties and cities, and rivers and mountains; and to be revered and sung, and toasted through all time. If they failed, they were to be called knaves and fools, and fanatics for a fleeting hour; then to sink and be forgotten. They succeeded. The experiment is successful; and thousands have won their deathless names in making it so. But the game is caught; and I believe it is true, that with the catching, end the pleasures of the chase. This field of glory is harvested, and the crop is already appropriated. But new reapers will arise, and they, too, will seek a field. It is to deny, what the history of the world tells us is true, to suppose that men of ambition and talents will not continue to spring up amongst us. And, when they do, they will as naturally seek the gratification of their ruling passion, as others have so done before them. The question then, is, can that gratification be found in supporting and maintaining an edifice that has been erected by others? Most certainly it cannot. Many great and good men sufficiently qualified for any task they should undertake, may ever be found, whose ambition would inspire to nothing beyond a seat in Congress, a gubernatorial or a presidential chair; but such belong not to the family of the lion, or the tribe of the eagle. What! think you these places would satisfy an Alexander, a Caesar, or a Napoleon?–Never! Towering genius distains a beaten path. It seeks regions hitherto unexplored.–It sees no distinction in adding story to story, upon the monuments of fame, erected to the memory of others. It denies that it is glory enough to serve under any chief. It scorns to tread in the footsteps of any predecessor, however illustrious. It thirsts and burns for distinction; and, if possible, it will have it, whether at the expense of emancipating slaves, or enslaving freemen. Is it unreasonable then to expect, that some man possessed of the loftiest genius, coupled with ambition sufficient to push it to its utmost stretch, will at some time, spring up among us? And when such a one does, it will require the people to be united with each other, attached to the government and laws, and generally intelligent, to successfully frustrate his designs.

Distinction will be his paramount object, and although he would as willingly, perhaps more so, acquire it by doing good as harm; yet, that opportunity being past, and nothing left to be done in the way of building up, he would set boldly to the task of pulling down.

Here, then, is a probable case, highly dangerous, and such a one as could not have well existed heretofore.

Another reason which once was; but which, to the same extent, is now no more, has done much in maintaining our institutions thus far. I mean the powerful influence which the interesting scenes of the revolution had upon the passions of the people as distinguished from their judgment. By this influence, the jealousy, envy, and avarice, incident to our nature, and so common to a state of peace, prosperity, and conscious strength, were, for the time, in a great measure smothered and rendered inactive; while the deep-rooted principles of hate, and the powerful motive of revenge, instead of being turned against each other, were directed exclusively against the British nation. And thus, from the force of circumstances, the basest principles of our nature, were either made to lie dormant, or to become the active agents in the advancement of the noblest cause–that of establishing and maintaining civil and religious liberty.

But this state of feeling must fade, is fading, has faded, with the circumstances that produced it.

I do not mean to say, that the scenes of the revolution are now or ever will be entirely forgotten; but that like every thing else, they must fade upon the memory of the world, and grow more and more dim by the lapse of time. In history, we hope, they will be read of, and recounted, so long as the bible shall be read;– but even granting that they will, their influence cannot be what it heretofore has been. Even then, they cannot be so universally known, nor so vividly felt, as they were by the generation just gone to rest. At the close of that struggle, nearly every adult male had been a participator in some of its scenes. The consequence was, that of those scenes, in the form of a husband, a father, a son or brother, a living history was to be found in every family– a history bearing the indubitable testimonies of its own authenticity, in the limbs mangled, in the scars of wounds received, in the midst of the very scenes related–a history, too, that could be read and understood alike by all, the wise and the ignorant, the learned and the unlearned.–But those histories are gone. They can be read no more forever. They were a fortress of strength; but, what invading foeman could never do, the silent artillery of time has done; the leveling of its walls. They are gone.–They were a forest of giant oaks; but the all-resistless hurricane has swept over them, and left only, here and there, a lonely trunk, despoiled of its verdure, shorn of its foliage; unshading and unshaded, to murmur in a few gentle breezes, and to combat with its mutilated limbs, a few more ruder storms, then to sink, and be no more.

They were the pillars of the temple of liberty; and now, that they have crumbled away, that temple must fall, unless we, their descendants, supply their places with other pillars, hewn from the solid quarry of sober reason. Passion has helped us; but can do so no more. It will in future be our enemy. Reason, cold, calculating, unimpassioned reason, must furnish all the materials for our future support and defence.–Let those materials be moulded into general intelligence, sound morality, and in particular, a reverence for the constitution and laws: and, that we improved to the last; that we remained free to the last; that we revered his name to the last; that, during his long sleep, we permitted no hostile foot to pass over or desecrate his resting place; shall be that which to learn the last trump shall awaken our WASHINGTON.

Upon these let the proud fabric of freedom rest, as the rock of its basis; and as truly as has been said of the only greater institution, “the gates of hell shall not prevail against it.”


Source: Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln, edited by Roy P. Basler.

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