Talk About Constituent Service…

A friend just popped up on IM to tell me quite a story…

*my friend*: hey, you there??

*my friend*: you won’t believe what just happened to me. I called Ted Leiu’s office this morning (our state sen here in El Seg [actually an Assembly member…A.L.]) to complain about the new budget bill. The woman on the phone was totally dismissive of me and literally hung up on me. So i called her back to ask her if she hung up on me. i made standard comments about how she worked for the people and that was no way to treat people who have an opinion. She asked me for my name, address and phone number and i gave them willingly.

*my friend*: Just now, a uniformed CHP officer showed up at my door to ask me some questions about the call. Ted Leiu’s office called the CHP and said that i was some sort of danger. When asked if i had been aggressive or used profane language, they said no, but we are worried about him. So the CHP officer, who was very nice and totally understood my position, said that since they turned in a complaint, he had to follow up on it. And that the visit would require a notation in their files about the visit.

*my friend*: the reason i had called to begin with was to tell Ted Leiu that I was strongly considering moving out of the state based on this new budget and the lack of seriousness in Sac. Now, i am really thinking about it

*me*: I’m here….

*me*: reading…one sec

*me*: that’s fricking outrageous…

*my friend*: yeah. kinda funny but really kind of scary

*me*: worse than that….

*me*: gut check…you can be intense

*me*: what was your affect on the phone??

*my friend*: the cop even told me that he asked them if i was threatening or profane and they said no.

*me*: wow…that’s outrageous…

*my friend*: i was pissed off when the woman hung up on me and i called back to ask if she had done that. i used the old line about, “Don’t you work for the people?” and i think that pissed her off

*me*: tough

*me*: she needs thicker skin

*my friend*: i was not mean or rude but i was angry that i was being dismissed

*my friend*: i really think it is time to leave. i dont want to be the “last jew out of prague”

*my friend*: when you see a large CHP officer at the door asking if you are the one who called your senator’s office, that is scary

I’ll restate my real-time reaction – that’s fricking outrageous. I’ve sent an email off to Lieu’s office and will post any response I get.

But here are the facts as I know them. A fellow constituent – I’m in Lieu’s district as well – calls to register his unhappiness with the new budget (I’m working on a post about it – personally, I think it’s a pretty good one under the circumstances, and disagree with my friend), and feels blown off by the person whose job it is to listen to him and communicate his views. She hangs up on him, and when he calls her back to challenge her on her behavior, she uses the power of the state to send an armed state law officer calling on my friend.

Absent some pretty significant bad behavior by my friend – and I’m guessing he’s honest enough with me that in a personal communication like the one above, he’d have acknowledged it – there is simply no excuse whatsoever for this.

A Day Late

The Perpetuation of Our Political Institutions:
Address By Abraham Lincoln Before the Young Men’s Lyceum of Springfield, Illinois
January 27, 1838

As a subject for the remarks of the evening, the perpetuation of our political institutions, is selected.

In the great journal of things happening under the sun, we, the American People, find our account running, under date of the nineteenth century of the Christian era.–We find ourselves in the peaceful possession, of the fairest portion of the earth, as regards extent of territory, fertility of soil, and salubrity of climate. We find ourselves under the government of a system of political institutions, conducing more essentially to the ends of civil and religious liberty, than any of which the history of former times tells us. We, when mounting the stage of existence, found ourselves the legal inheritors of these fundamental blessings. We toiled not in the acquirement or establishment of them–they are a legacy bequeathed us, by a once hardy, brave, and patriotic, but now lamented and departed race of ancestors. Their’s was the task (and nobly they performed it) to possess themselves, and through themselves, us, of this goodly land; and to uprear upon its hills and its valleys, a political edifice of liberty and equal rights; ’tis ours only, to transmit these, the former, unprofaned by the foot of an invader; the latter, undecayed by the lapse of time and untorn by usurpation, to the latest generation that fate shall permit the world to know. This task of gratitude to our fathers, justice to ourselves, duty to posterity, and love for our species in general, all imperatively require us faithfully to perform.

How then shall we perform it?–At what point shall we expect the approach of danger? By what means shall we fortify against it?– Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the Ocean, and crush us at a blow? Never!–All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years.

At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.I hope I am over wary; but if I am not, there is, even now, something of ill-omen, amongst us. I mean the increasing disregard for law which pervades the country; the growing disposition to substitute the wild and furious passions, in lieu of the sober judgment of Courts; and the worse than savage mobs, for the executive ministers of justice. This disposition is awfully fearful in any community; and that it now exists in ours, though grating to our feelings to admit, it would be a violation of truth, and an insult to our intelligence, to deny. Accounts of outrages committed by mobs, form the every-day news of the times. They have pervaded the country, from New England to Louisiana;–they are neither peculiar to the eternal snows of the former, nor the burning suns of the latter;–they are not the creature of climate– neither are they confined to the slave-holding, or the non-slave- holding States. Alike, they spring up among the pleasure hunting masters of Southern slaves, and the order loving citizens of the land of steady habits.–Whatever, then, their cause may be, it is common to the whole country.

It would be tedious, as well as useless, to recount the horrors of all of them. Those happening in the State of Mississippi, and at St. Louis, are, perhaps, the most dangerous in example and revolting to humanity. In the Mississippi case, they first commenced by hanging the regular gamblers; a set of men, certainly not following for a livelihood, a very useful, or very honest occupation; but one which, so far from being forbidden by the laws, was actually licensed by an act of the Legislature, passed but a single year before. Next, negroes, suspected of conspiring to raise an insurrection, were caught up and hanged in all parts of the State: then, white men, supposed to be leagued with the negroes; and finally, strangers, from neighboring States, going thither on business, were, in many instances subjected to the same fate. Thus went on this process of hanging, from gamblers to negroes, from negroes to white citizens, and from these to strangers; till, dead men were seen literally dangling from the boughs of trees upon every road side; and in numbers almost sufficient, to rival the native Spanish moss of the country, as a drapery of the forest.

Turn, then, to that horror-striking scene at St. Louis. A single victim was only sacrificed there. His story is very short; and is, perhaps, the most highly tragic, if anything of its length, that has ever been witnessed in real life. A mulatto man, by the name of McIntosh, was seized in the street, dragged to the suburbs of the city, chained to a tree, and actually burned to death; and all within a single hour from the time he had been a freeman, attending to his own business, and at peace with the world.

Such are the effects of mob law; and such as the scenes, becoming more and more frequent in this land so lately famed for love of law and order; and the stories of which, have even now grown too familiar, to attract any thing more, than an idle remark.

But you are, perhaps, ready to ask, “What has this to do with the perpetuation of our political institutions?” I answer, it has much to do with it. Its direct consequences are, comparatively speaking, but a small evil; and much of its danger consists, in the proneness of our minds, to regard its direct, as its only consequences. Abstractly considered, the hanging of the gamblers at Vicksburg, was of but little consequence. They constitute a portion of population, that is worse than useless in any community; and their death, if no pernicious example be set by it, is never matter of reasonable regret with any one. If they were annually swept, from the stage of existence, by the plague or small pox, honest men would, perhaps, be much profited, by the operation.–Similar too, is the correct reasoning, in regard to the burning of the negro at St. Louis. He had forfeited his life, by the perpetuation of an outrageous murder, upon one of the most worthy and respectable citizens of the city; and had not he died as he did, he must have died by the sentence of the law, in a very short time afterwards. As to him alone, it was as well the way it was, as it could otherwise have been.–But the example in either case, was fearful.–When men take it in their heads to day, to hang gamblers, or burn murderers, they should recollect, that, in the confusion usually attending such transactions, they will be as likely to hang or burn some one who is neither a gambler nor a murderer as one who is; and that, acting upon the example they set, the mob of to-morrow, may, and probably will, hang or burn some of them by the very same mistake. And not only so; the innocent, those who have ever set their faces against violations of law in every shape, alike with the guilty, fall victims to the ravages of mob law; and thus it goes on, step by step, till all the walls erected for the defense of the persons and property of individuals, are trodden down, and disregarded. But all this even, is not the full extent of the evil.–By such examples, by instances of the perpetrators of such acts going unpunished, the lawless in spirit, are encouraged to become lawless in practice; and having been used to no restraint, but dread of punishment, they thus become, absolutely unrestrained.–Having ever regarded Government as their deadliest bane, they make a jubilee of the suspension of its operations; and pray for nothing so much, as its total annihilation. While, on the other hand, good men, men who love tranquility, who desire to abide by the laws, and enjoy their benefits, who would gladly spill their blood in the defense of their country; seeing their property destroyed; their families insulted, and their lives endangered; their persons injured; and seeing nothing in prospect that forebodes a change for the better; become tired of, and disgusted with, a Government that offers them no protection; and are not much averse to a change in which they imagine they have nothing to lose. Thus, then, by the operation of this mobocractic spirit, which all must admit, is now abroad in the land, the strongest bulwark of any Government, and particularly of those constituted like ours, may effectually be broken down and destroyed–I mean the attachment of the People. Whenever this effect shall be produced among us; whenever the vicious portion of population shall be permitted to gather in bands of hundreds and thousands, and burn churches, ravage and rob provision-stores, throw printing presses into rivers, shoot editors, and hang and burn obnoxious persons at pleasure, and with impunity; depend on it, this Government cannot last. By such things, the feelings of the best citizens will become more or less alienated from it; and thus it will be left without friends, or with too few, and those few too weak, to make their friendship effectual. At such a time and under such circumstances, men of sufficient talent and ambition will not be wanting to seize the opportunity, strike the blow, and overturn that fair fabric, which for the last half century, has been the fondest hope, of the lovers of freedom, throughout the world.

I know the American People are much attached to their Government;–I know they would suffer much for its sake;–I know they would endure evils long and patiently, before they would ever think of exchanging it for another. Yet, notwithstanding all this, if the laws be continually despised and disregarded, if their rights to be secure in their persons and property, are held by no better tenure than the caprice of a mob, the alienation of their affections from the Government is the natural consequence; and to that, sooner or later, it must come.

Here then, is one point at which danger may be expected.

The question recurs, “how shall we fortify against it?” The answer is simple. Let every American, every lover of liberty, every well wisher to his posterity, swear by the blood of the Revolution, never to violate in the least particular, the laws of the country; and never to tolerate their violation by others. As the patriots of seventy-six did to the support of the Declaration of Independence, so to the support of the Constitution and Laws, let every American pledge his life, his property, and his sacred honor;–let every man remember that to violate the law, is to trample on the blood of his father, and to tear the character of his own, and his children’s liberty. Let reverence for the laws, be breathed by every American mother, to the lisping babe, that prattles on her lap–let it be taught in schools, in seminaries, and in colleges; let it be written in Primers, spelling books, and in Almanacs;–let it be preached from the pulpit, proclaimed in legislative halls, and enforced in courts of justice. And, in short, let it become the political religion of the nation; and let the old and the young, the rich and the poor, the grave and the gay, of all sexes and tongues, and colors and conditions, sacrifice unceasingly upon its altars.

While ever a state of feeling, such as this, shall universally, or even, very generally prevail throughout the nation, vain will be every effort, and fruitless every attempt, to subvert our national freedom.

When I so pressingly urge a strict observance of all the laws, let me not be understood as saying there are no bad laws, nor that grievances may not arise, for the redress of which, no legal provisions have been made.–I mean to say no such thing. But I do mean to say, that, although bad laws, if they exist, should be repealed as soon as possible, still while they continue in force, for the sake of example, they should be religiously observed. So also in unprovided cases. If such arise, let proper legal provisions be made for them with the least possible delay; but, till then, let them, if not too intolerable, be borne with.

There is no grievance that is a fit object of redress by mob law. In any case that arises, as for instance, the promulgation of abolitionism, one of two positions is necessarily true; that is, the thing is right within itself, and therefore deserves the protection of all law and all good citizens; or, it is wrong, and therefore proper to be prohibited by legal enactments; and in neither case, is the interposition of mob law, either necessary, justifiable, or excusable.

But, it may be asked, why suppose danger to our political institutions? Have we not preserved them for more than fifty years? And why may we not for fifty times as long?

We hope there is no sufficient reason. We hope all dangers may be overcome; but to conclude that no danger may ever arise, would itself be extremely dangerous. There are now, and will hereafter be, many causes, dangerous in their tendency, which have not existed heretofore; and which are not too insignificant to merit attention. That our government should have been maintained in its original form from its establishment until now, is not much to be wondered at. It had many props to support it through that period, which now are decayed, and crumbled away. Through that period, it was felt by all, to be an undecided experiment; now, it is understood to be a successful one.–Then, all that sought celebrity and fame, and distinction, expected to find them in the success of that experiment. Their all was staked upon it:– their destiny was inseparably linked with it. Their ambition aspired to display before an admiring world, a practical demonstration of the truth of a proposition, which had hitherto been considered, at best no better, than problematical; namely, the capability of a people to govern themselves. If they succeeded, they were to be immortalized; their names were to be transferred to counties and cities, and rivers and mountains; and to be revered and sung, and toasted through all time. If they failed, they were to be called knaves and fools, and fanatics for a fleeting hour; then to sink and be forgotten. They succeeded. The experiment is successful; and thousands have won their deathless names in making it so. But the game is caught; and I believe it is true, that with the catching, end the pleasures of the chase. This field of glory is harvested, and the crop is already appropriated. But new reapers will arise, and they, too, will seek a field. It is to deny, what the history of the world tells us is true, to suppose that men of ambition and talents will not continue to spring up amongst us. And, when they do, they will as naturally seek the gratification of their ruling passion, as others have so done before them. The question then, is, can that gratification be found in supporting and maintaining an edifice that has been erected by others? Most certainly it cannot. Many great and good men sufficiently qualified for any task they should undertake, may ever be found, whose ambition would inspire to nothing beyond a seat in Congress, a gubernatorial or a presidential chair; but such belong not to the family of the lion, or the tribe of the eagle. What! think you these places would satisfy an Alexander, a Caesar, or a Napoleon?–Never! Towering genius distains a beaten path. It seeks regions hitherto unexplored.–It sees no distinction in adding story to story, upon the monuments of fame, erected to the memory of others. It denies that it is glory enough to serve under any chief. It scorns to tread in the footsteps of any predecessor, however illustrious. It thirsts and burns for distinction; and, if possible, it will have it, whether at the expense of emancipating slaves, or enslaving freemen. Is it unreasonable then to expect, that some man possessed of the loftiest genius, coupled with ambition sufficient to push it to its utmost stretch, will at some time, spring up among us? And when such a one does, it will require the people to be united with each other, attached to the government and laws, and generally intelligent, to successfully frustrate his designs.

Distinction will be his paramount object, and although he would as willingly, perhaps more so, acquire it by doing good as harm; yet, that opportunity being past, and nothing left to be done in the way of building up, he would set boldly to the task of pulling down.

Here, then, is a probable case, highly dangerous, and such a one as could not have well existed heretofore.

Another reason which once was; but which, to the same extent, is now no more, has done much in maintaining our institutions thus far. I mean the powerful influence which the interesting scenes of the revolution had upon the passions of the people as distinguished from their judgment. By this influence, the jealousy, envy, and avarice, incident to our nature, and so common to a state of peace, prosperity, and conscious strength, were, for the time, in a great measure smothered and rendered inactive; while the deep-rooted principles of hate, and the powerful motive of revenge, instead of being turned against each other, were directed exclusively against the British nation. And thus, from the force of circumstances, the basest principles of our nature, were either made to lie dormant, or to become the active agents in the advancement of the noblest cause–that of establishing and maintaining civil and religious liberty.

But this state of feeling must fade, is fading, has faded, with the circumstances that produced it.

I do not mean to say, that the scenes of the revolution are now or ever will be entirely forgotten; but that like every thing else, they must fade upon the memory of the world, and grow more and more dim by the lapse of time. In history, we hope, they will be read of, and recounted, so long as the bible shall be read;– but even granting that they will, their influence cannot be what it heretofore has been. Even then, they cannot be so universally known, nor so vividly felt, as they were by the generation just gone to rest. At the close of that struggle, nearly every adult male had been a participator in some of its scenes. The consequence was, that of those scenes, in the form of a husband, a father, a son or brother, a living history was to be found in every family– a history bearing the indubitable testimonies of its own authenticity, in the limbs mangled, in the scars of wounds received, in the midst of the very scenes related–a history, too, that could be read and understood alike by all, the wise and the ignorant, the learned and the unlearned.–But those histories are gone. They can be read no more forever. They were a fortress of strength; but, what invading foeman could never do, the silent artillery of time has done; the leveling of its walls. They are gone.–They were a forest of giant oaks; but the all-resistless hurricane has swept over them, and left only, here and there, a lonely trunk, despoiled of its verdure, shorn of its foliage; unshading and unshaded, to murmur in a few gentle breezes, and to combat with its mutilated limbs, a few more ruder storms, then to sink, and be no more.

They were the pillars of the temple of liberty; and now, that they have crumbled away, that temple must fall, unless we, their descendants, supply their places with other pillars, hewn from the solid quarry of sober reason. Passion has helped us; but can do so no more. It will in future be our enemy. Reason, cold, calculating, unimpassioned reason, must furnish all the materials for our future support and defence.–Let those materials be moulded into general intelligence, sound morality, and in particular, a reverence for the constitution and laws: and, that we improved to the last; that we remained free to the last; that we revered his name to the last; that, during his long sleep, we permitted no hostile foot to pass over or desecrate his resting place; shall be that which to learn the last trump shall awaken our WASHINGTON.

Upon these let the proud fabric of freedom rest, as the rock of its basis; and as truly as has been said of the only greater institution, “the gates of hell shall not prevail against it.”

Source: Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln, edited by Roy P. Basler.

On The End Of Privacy And Transparency

I had a brief Facebook conversation with a local LA political figure about ‘‘, the mashup of political donation data that’s currently generating a little controversy.

Short version: some genius got the idea to take the publicly available donor lists and map them on Google, so that everyone can see who donated to the initiative that banned same-sex marriage in California (note that we still have our "No on 8" poster in the window facing the street…we’re diehards).

Predictably, the usualy trolls and idiots have harassed them:

A college professor from the University of California, San Francisco, wrote a $100 check in support of Proposition 8 in August, because he said he supported civil unions for gay couples but did not want to change the traditional definition of marriage. He has received many confrontational e-mail messages, some anonymous, since eightmaps listed his donation and employer. One signed message blasted him for supporting the measure and was copied to a dozen of his colleagues and supervisors at the university, he said.

"I thought what the eightmaps creators did with the information was actually sort of neat," the professor said, who asked that his name not be used to avoid becoming more of a target. "But people who use that site to send out intimidating or harassing messages cross the line."

Joseph Clare, a San Francisco accountant who donated $500 to supporters of Proposition 8, said he had received several e-mail messages accusing him of "donating to hate." Mr. Clare said the site perverts the meaning of disclosure laws that were originally intended to expose large corporate donors who might be seeking to influence big state projects.

"I don’t think the law was designed to identify people for direct feedback to them from others on the other side," Mr. Clare said. "I think it’s been misused."

Get used to it, some reply – and widen the net of posting data about potentially controversial positions. The Memphis Commercial Appeal has set up a database of CCW holders in Tennessee.

The problem, of course is that all ofthese things are a two-edged sword.

Someone will soon set up a mirror site, showing "No on 8" donations (I actually may set one up showing all the donations; that’d be an interesting project), and soon fundamentalist church members who quietly support gay marriage will find their pastors taking them aside for some counselling, and businesses with gay-friendly owners in conservative communities will find themselves facing the kind of pressure that the San Fracisco cases above noticed.

I think this is a really bad thing – first, as a tactic for gay marriage supporters, who need the support of the "squishy middle" to win, and come across as bullies in this case – and for our conception of politics as a ‘meeting place’ where I can choose to be public (stand up and speak) or private.

And viscerally, I don’t like that change.

But practically, I don’t see a way around it. Maybe Bill Joy was right.


I have had a problem with "zero-tolerance" policies in our schools for some time.

We now have another perfect example of how stupid it is, and how badly it needs to be done away with.

In Colorado this week:

A local school district has suspended a member of the Young Marines youth leadership group after students saw drill props in her vehicle.

Marie Morrow, a 17-year-old senior at Cherokee Trail High School in Aurora, is serving a 10-day suspension. Her punishment could be extended at an expulsion hearing later this month.

Morrow is a student leader in the Douglas County Young Marines, a group dedicated to teaching leadership and life skills.

Cherry Creek Schools suspended Morrow after other students reported seeing guns inside her SUV, which was parked outside school while she was in class.

The school also called police, who seized the three drill team guns made of wood, plastic and duct tape. Police told Morrow to claim them in time for her after-school drill practice off-campus.

School administrators, however, were less understanding. The guns were declared "authentic representations of genuine weapons," triggering a mandatory expulsion statute in state law.

There’s no freaking excuse for this – ridiculous – willingness to place all judgment at bay. A young woman who has what amounts to a toy gun in her car – one that she has a legitimate, benign use for – may get thrown out of her school.

There are a few people worth contacting about this, starting with:

1) Cherry Creek School District

Superintendent: rmcintire -at-

Board of Education: ccsdboard -at-

2) Principal of the High School

Brooke Gregory

egregory -at-

3) Contact local elected officials in Aurora, CO and ask them to intervene.

State Senator Nancy Spence

nancyspence -at-

State Representative Cindy Acree -at-

Tax Policy, Or How My Son’s School Just Helped Me Buy Tires For My Car And A Bigscreen TV.

I went online to [cough…] Tires, selected the tires, ordered and paid for them, and arranged for them to be shipped to and installed at the local [cough…] Tires located about 2 miles from my house. The nice thing about my order? I saved $41.25 in sales tax – 8.25% – by ordering online.

For Christmas, Tenacious G acknowledged my inner guy-ness and let me get a 46" Panasonic Viera plasma TV, and a new Denon receiver (we needed something that switched HDMI, of course!) – all in all, about a $2K purchase, with a savings of $165.00 in tax that Amazon didn’t want to collect. At the rate of sales tax that my city collects – 1.75% of the 8.25% total – that’s $43.75 out of the city budget.

I’m about to make myself professionally unpopular. I work in online technology, which is driven by two engines – advertising and commerce.

One of those engines is becoming less effective (advertising) and the other is getting a subsidy from my kid’s school, which makes me unhappy. And ought to make you unhappy as well.

Let’s toss some numbers around.

The best estimates I can find for online retail in 2008 range from $130 billion to $175 billion. The Department of Commerce estimates it at approximately $130 billion, or 4% of all retail sales (up from 2.2% in 2004). Per the Census data for 2002, California represented about 11.6% of the retail sales for the nation, so figure that California had about 11.6% of an estimated $155.5 billion in total online retail sales for $18 billion in online retail sales.

The best estimates I can find suggest that less than 10% of online sales collect sales tax, so assume 90% are not taxed – for untaxed online retail sales of $16.2 billion.

At 8.25% – the base rate statewide (many local jurisdictions have higher rates) – we’re looking at $1.34 billion dollars in taxes that were avoided because people like me made economically rational choices.

Or to look at it another way, the Best Buy down the street from me would have had to sell the same TV and receiver for 9% less than Amazon to match their pricing. Meaning that not only does my kids school lose out on the money that might have been collected, but my neighbors high school age daughter can’t get a job because business at Best Buy is too slow.

To put this into perspective, the structural deficit in the California budget is now stated to be about $14.5 billion/year. Simply collecting the taxes on things people already buy would cover almost 10% of that – not chump change.

As a practitioner in the online space, I think it’s time to level the playing field as well. For a long time, I’ve argued that the ‘hidden subsidy’ makes online merchants lazy and prevents real competition between online and offline merchants. It makes a lot of online merchandising simply regulatory arbitrage.

I’ll add some thoughts on the California finance crisis and then the national stimulus bill later this week.

Iraq In Early 2009

So I’ve been sitting and reading and thinking about the outcomes of the Iraqi election – hesitant to jump up and down in part because I was too enthusiastic about the elections before.

But after two weeks of watching the news and reading analysis from everyone from Michael Yon to Juan Cole, I’ve got to stop for a moment and talk about what a wonderful thing it is that Iraq has a politics, and more, that it’s emerging as a national politics.

The cast of parties and characters in Iraqi politics is as complex as family lines in a Tolstoy novel. While I look at them and listen to those who try and understand the shifting alliances at the heart of Iraqi politics, I won’t pretend at this point to be able to predict much about the political outcomes – and I’m skeptical of anyone right now who claims they can.

But I can put a stake in the ground and say one thing; that we’re seeing the emergence of a genuine Iraqi politics, and that the center of focus has shifted from the balance of militia power to the balance of political power, from bullets to ballots as they say.

The politics aren’t necessarily what we wish they were – but they are what the Iraqi people are choosing, and that’s about as good as it gets.

The reality is that there is emerging a central Iraqi government with enough authority to, among other things, negotiate its own term for engagement with the US. And the reality is that what we need to do is negotiate our engagement with them in light of their and our best interests.

The problem is that we are likely to negotiate our engagement in light of our domestic political conflicts; that we’ll choose an Iraq policy based on backward-looking score settling between the pro- and anti-war factions in our own politics.

So far,Obama seems to be avoiding that path, and as a consequence I think we’ll see slow walking and sad talking on the part of a lot of the antiwar commentariat. As well as from the folks who think we need a wider war.

But as long as individual Iraqis lives are getting better…(and the indicators suggest that’s true):

BAGHDAD (1/9/09)– While Americans have been watching the value of their homes plunge in recent months, residents of the Iraqi capital find themselves in the exact opposite situation, with long depressed housing prices skyrocketing to levels that are now out of reach for most residents.

For those who were forced to give up their homes during the worst days of sectarian violence that wracked the country in 2006, the current boom in housing prices is especially painful.

Mohammad Sadun, 59, a worker at the Ministry of Transportation, sold his house in the al-Doura district in 2006 for about $34,000.

“I felt al-Doura would never come back to life again and that the insurgents would control it forever,” he said.

His former house is worth about $128,000 on today’s market.

…I can live with a pretty high level of domestic discontent.

I Was Actually Shocked To Hear He Was Still Alive…

Dead yesterday, singer Lux Interior, of the great 80’s punk/psychobilly band, the Cramps.

Mahubahay Gardens, Madam Wong’s, Club 88…all one with the Snowdens of yesteryear, I guess. Tonight I can smell those places…stale beer, wafting bathroom odors, sweat, smoke. I always understood immediately the impact of the taste of madelines; it’s the senses, not the mind that jar us into our pasts.

The Riddle of This Recession

So I’m still wrestling with the disconnect between the economy I see on the street here in Torrance – which is strained, but not broken – and the level of hysteria I see in the media (including the blogs) about our current economic turmoil. Note that I’m unemployed as I write this, yet pretty comfortably optimistic.

This isn’t about current politics (yet). I’m in favor of the steps that Bush took and that Obama seems to be taking (with some pretty serious concern about the ‘quality’ of the spend in the stimulus package). But before I get there, I am trying to orient myself.

So here’s some data, and I’d love to trigger some discussion and insight from the crowd. Basic question: is panic really the right reaction?

Here’s a table of the incidences of negative chained GDP since WWII (from NBER). When there were multiple quarters with negative GDP growth, I summed them so that the ‘incident’ had a total percent change summing all the adjacent negative quarters. Note that some of these are single-quarter, and so not officially ‘recessions’.

1 1947 (Q2-Q3) -0.16%
2 1949 (Q1-Q2) -1.79%
3 1949 (Q4) -1.02%
4 1953 (Q3)-1954(Q1) -2.68%
5 1956 (Q1) -0.47%
6 1956 (Q3) -0.12%
7 1957 (Q2) -0.25%
8 1957 (Q4) – 1958 (Q1) -3.77%
9 1959 (Q3) -0.08%
10 1960 (Q2) -0.50%
11 1960 (Q4) -1.30%
12 1969 (Q4) – 1970 (Q1) -0.64%
13 1970 (Q4) -1.07%
14 1973 (Q3) -0.53%
15 1974 (Q1) -0.87%
16 1974 (Q3) – 1975 (Q1) -2.56%
17 1977 (Q4) -0.01%
18 1980 (Q2 – Q3) -2.18%
19 1981 (Q2) -0.78%
20 1981 (Q4) – 1982 (Q1) -2.89%
21 1982 (Q3) -0.38%
22 1990 (Q4) – 1991 (Q1) -1.27%
23 2000 (Q3) -0.11%
24 2001 (Q1) -0.12%
25 2001 (Q3) -0.35%
26 2007 (Q4) -0.04%
27 2008 (Q3 – Q4) -1.09%

Note that the current downturn (although not yet done) ranks 9th of 27 incidents…here is the table sorted by the percentage depth of the decline:

1 1957 (Q4) – 1958
2 1981 (Q4) – 1982 (Q1) -2.89%
3 1953 (Q3)-1954(Q1) -2.68%
4 1974 (Q3) – 1975 (Q1) -2.56%
5 1980 (Q2 – Q3) -2.18%
6 1949 (Q1-Q2) -1.79%
7 1960 (Q4) -1.30%
8 1990 (Q4) – 1991 (Q1) -1.27%
9 2008 (Q3 – Q4) -1.09%
10 1970 (Q4) -1.07%
11 1949 (Q4) -1.02%
12 1974 (Q1) -0.87%
13 1981 (Q2) -0.78%
14 1969 (Q4) – 1970 (Q1) -0.64%
15 1973 (Q3) -0.53%
16 1960 (Q2) -0.50%
17 1956 (Q1) -0.47%
18 1982 (Q3) -0.38%
19 2001 (Q3) -0.35%
20 1957 (Q2) -0.25%
21 1947 (Q2-Q3) -0.16%
22 2001 (Q1) -0.12%
23 1956 (Q3) -0.12%
24 2000 (Q3) -0.11%
25 1959 (Q3) -0.08%
26 2007 (Q4) -0.04%
27 1977 (Q4) -0.01%

And that it will have to be twice as bad as it is to be as bad as 1980, and if is three times as bad, it won’t be as bad as 1957, which I don’t recall reading about as the nadir of the American economy.

My knee-jerk reaction is that there’s a lot to be concerned about, but that the economy has a lot of deteriorating to do before it becomes devastated.

Like I always say “things are never as good as you’re told they are, nor as bad…”

Living With Solar

So we have a 2.8Kw-rated system from Solar City. I’ve been kind of concerned, because we seem to max at an output of about .8Kwh, which seems about 40% low, from what I’ve read.


So then  I went and looked at the bills.

Here’s Dec 2007 – Jan 2008:


Total usage 856 Kwh, cost $163.88.

Then we have Dec 2008 – Jan 2009.


Total usage – 464Kwh, total cost $72.09 – plus the $76 (including tax) that the solar system costs.

This is the first month where we’ve had stable usage (we were having
work done on the house in Dec.). For grins, I looked at the Dec 2006 –
Jan 2007 usage, and it was 909Kwh.

But there are a few odd things – figure we’ve averaged 7Kwh/day for 30
days – 210Kwh in total. Subtracted from last year’s bill, that brings
us to 646Kwh. Somewhere, we picked up an extra 200Kwh during the month.

We changed 3/4 of the 60w kitchen floods (6 of 8) to 15w CF floods. But
to counterbalance, we traded a 32″ CRT TV for a 46″ plasma (figure we
watch about 6hours/week).

But while puzzled, I’m certainly happy..