Here’s an interesting take by Amir Taheri on Iran, based on the folk take of ‘Pear-Shaped Ali’ (which is a better one for all concerned than ‘Mushroom Cloud-Shaped Ali’).
The issue here is not uranium enrichment but the finding of a way for the Islamic Republic to walk out of a high-risk confrontation with the United Nations without losing face.
On that score, Ahmadinejad should get high marks. But he may owe all that to the Tehrani folk tale we mentioned above. That tale is woven around its hero Ali Golabi (Pear-shaped Ali) who is a small chap with big ambitions.
The bigger chaps in the neighborhood dismiss him as a midget, bully him whenever they can, and never offer him a seat at the table in the teahouse which is their haunt. So what does Ali Golabi do? He goes around waving a big knife, making a big noise, breaking a window here and there, and, occasionally, even strangling a street cat to show his strength. His agitations annoy the big chaps who want to sip their tea, puff their hookahs and play a game of backgammon in peace.
Nevertheless, Ali knows where and when to stop. As soon as the big chaps come out of the teahouse to confront him, he declares that he has already done whatever he had wanted to do and is now ready not to do it again. This helps ease the tension and gets Ali off the hook- until the next showdown.
So, if our analysis is right the next step for the Islamic Republic would be to announce that, having done what it wanted to do, it has now decided to stop doing it for a while as a gesture of goodwill.
Tehran has less than two weeks to do that before the 28 April deadline set by the United Nations Security Council.
I may be wrong but I think that the Ahmadinejad announcement provides the first opportunity to stop the crisis from spiraling out of control. The Iranian climb-down, if it has not already happened by the time this column is published, is sure to come soon.
Interesting, and hopeful if true.
But not a long-term solution.
“The Iranian climb-down, if it has not already happened by the time this column is published, is sure to come soon”
Wishful thinking. What does Iran have to lose by not backing down, assuming they think the US wont strike?
There is zero reason to think the UN is going to actually take action.
me think wishful reasoning too. iran will install 3000 more centrifuges soon.
Marc,
I don’t know who’s crazier, those who think we can negotiate with Iran; Ahmadinejad; or the mad Mullahs who really rule Iran.
I’ve pretty much reached what Jim Geraghty, TKS at NRO’s blogroll, has termed the “tipping point”.
Drop a nuke on every Iranian military and nuclear research site and be done with it. They’ve already declared war with their “suicide bomber school” anyway.
I used to be a pretty understanding, even if I disagreed, type person, a “compassionate conservative” before such a phrase even existed.
Now, kill ’em all just as we would plague infected rats.
Mike
Well, I don’t know if nukes are necesary but whatever it takes. We need to get this over with. I am hoping that the Chief is waiting until the very last second, in order to make the destruction as costly for the regime – and the Russians and the Chinese – as possible. But still.
Faster, please.
http://asher813.blogspot .com
BTW, your site isn’t letting me post a homepage link. When are you planning to fix this?
Asher Abrams,
Too much comment spam originates from blog*pot. Once your host gets a handle on the problem, webmaster Joe Katzman indicated he’d consider removing that domain from the blacklist.
Sorry about that.
Note to all who want to link to bl*gsp*t; use the service TinyURL to convert the address of the page you want to link.
http://www.tinyurl.com
The url:
http://whatsapundit.bl*gsp*t.com/
becomes
http://tinyurl.com/lghft
Drop a nuke on every Iranian military and nuclear research site and be done with it. They’ve already declared war with their “suicide bomber school” anyway.
I used to be a pretty understanding, even if I disagreed, type person, a “compassionate conservative” before such a phrase even existed.
Now, kill ’em all just as we would plague infected rats.
Mike
Good God in heaven. Preventive nuclear holocaust? Dehumanization of an entire people?
Did this sound better in the original German?
And the proprietors of this august website just let this genocidal madness of a post sit there. No criticism, no editing. Winds of change, all right.
stickler, you’re right – I flat missed that one. I don’t think I can improve on your answer, though.
A.L.
Stickler #8,
> And the proprietors of this august website just let this genocidal madness of a post sit there. No criticism, no editing. Winds of change, all right.
You are seeing (and participating in) the miracle of open comments. People sometimes leave some pretty awful sentiments. As to the specifics of your point, you are more wrong than right. Many people have responded carefully and sensibly to the sort of comment that you responded to. I know because I’ve done just that, on this very point, numerous times.
However, I am not obligated to repeat myself on every such occasion–am I? I have a day job…
When it comes to comments, think Hyde Park, not received wisdom, please. FWIW, I try and cut some slack for the proprietors of other political sites that I largely disagree with.
I also agree with Stickler – the idea of preventive mass use of nuclear weapons is horrendous. And Mike did say Drop a nuke on every Iranian military and nuclear research site and be done with it so it’s a pretty broad brush he paints with. That’s what, 10 to 20 million dead in a preventive war act? Even if he qualified his every to mean every site that could be used to strike US facilities or forces, the civilian toll is still unspeakably huge. And, I have to say, the sentiment behind it is unspeakably barbaric.
It’s also worth noting that Mike’s prescription is most likely exactly what we would be doing in response to an Iranian first use. The target list is the same, the casualties are the same – on their side. Added to the mix is the impact to the US target(s) struck, and the hit to the overall global human population as the economy and transportation systems tank. An exchange between Iran and Israel looks a bit different, but not much.
So to prevent Mike’s prescription from ever being administered, there needs to be no Iranian use of a nuclear weapon. Most of the commenters at WoC – including me – believe that if the Iranians have a nuke, they will use it. So, for us, the place to start is how can Iran be denied a nuclear bomb? And, how long do we have to let that happen, before we have to make that happen?
Most unsettling is the answer – no one knows.
Robert,
The only difference if Israel is replying to an Iran-initiated exchange is that you kiss pretty much every Iranian city good bye, plus all Arab cities of any significance in Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and I wouldn’t want to be in Doha or Khartoum. Lebanon will depend on which way the wind is blowing – literally. Mecca is left for use as a convenient hostage thereafter; always leave yourself a bargaining position. The death toll is closer to 100 million than 10.
They don’t call it “The Samson Option” for nothing, you know – but of course, it would all be OK because Islam would survive and the Jews wouldn’t. Just ask Rafsanjani.
Say, isn’t he supposed to be one of the moderates over there? Oh well…
Joe, good point. A US strike just retaliates against those we think hit us, and probably those who we think are about to jump on board. The Israeli view has got to be that almost everyone who is Arab fits into the category of ‘about to jump on board.’