SEE!! I TOLD YOU SO!!

Via Andrew Edwards, Thomas Friedman’s column in the NYT. The key excerpt:

Think of it like this: There are two ways for a government to get rich in the Middle East. One is by drilling a sand dune and the other is by drilling the talents, intelligence, creativity and energy of its men and women. As long as the autocratic leaders of Iran, Iraq or Saudi Arabia can get rich by drilling their natural resources, they can stay in power a long, long time. All they have to do is capture control of the oil tap. Only when a government has to drill its human resources will it organize itself in a way that enables it to extract those talents — with modern education, open trade, and freedom of thought, of scientific enquiry and of the press.
For all these reasons, if we really want to hasten the transition from autocracy to something more democratic in places like Iraq or Iran, the most important thing we can do is gradually, but steadily, bring down the price of oil — through conservation and alternative energies.

Yeah!! What he said!!
The sad fact is that the oil-producing countries are rich junkies; their lives and health are falling apart, but the trust fund manages to keep them afloat, hooked, and unhealthy. Without it, they would hit bottom and have to change. With it, the decline is prolonged.

6 thoughts on “SEE!! I TOLD YOU SO!!”

  1. The oil billionaires are like feudal lords, rentiers, or even welfare mothers, who sit there and wait for their checks. No effort is required, except the schmoozing and networking required to get yourself a big cut of the take.
    The various sorts of terrorism all depend not primarily on fanatical devotees willing to die, but even more on people with deep pockets willing and able to take care of the families of the martyrs. A martyr has done his job for his family, something not always easy to do.
    So Bin Laden is not a third world representative, but really (with some exaggeration) a rogue billionaire.

  2. I think that the lack of real opportunity in places like Saudi Arabia also is a factor in the availibility of martyrs. The WTC 19 seem mostly to have been fairly well educated, moderately prosperous, and more or less middle class, but in Saudi Arabia there really were no avenues for them to establish themselves, just because there isn’t a productive economy or any opportunity to speak of because of nepotism, etc.
    When I tutored ESL writing 20+ years ago the best student I had was a Saudi with a MA in Public Health. He was depressed because his country unquestionably needed his expertise, but when he went back his boss would be someone’s ignorant nephew or cousin, and of course the mullahs would have a veto power on everything he did.

  3. Strangely, Friedman doesn’t mention the big huge exception to his argument: Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, where oil profits coincided with rapid industrial and educational development, along with relatively equal treatment of women (and of course a monstrously gruesome police state).

  4. Ya know, Henry, you’ve just pointed out a huge hole in my history…pre-Baath Iraq. I need to do some homework. I had somehow always ass-u-med that Iraq was mercantile and urbanized, along the lines of Turkey…and never when or how it got there. Anyone got any book suggestions??
    I’m not clear on whether your comment was about this, or about the Stalinist development programs of the Baath party…help me out on this…
    A.L.

  5. Just pointing out that Friedman’s fast-and-easy categorizations don’t always work. I’m pretty skeptical about any portrait of something as big and complex as a society or a nation that fits inside the space of an NYTIMES column.
    IRAQ SINCE 1958:
    http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1850433178/qid=1035565610/sr=1-28/ref=sr_1_28/103-0020474-0211826?v=glance
    A HISTORY OF IRAQ is good for political stuff.
    http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/stores/detail/-/books/052152900X/reviews/103-0020474-0211826#052152900×5000
    For basics, there’s the COMPLETE IDIOT’S GUIDE TO UNDERSTANDING IRAQ.
    http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0028643984/qid=1035565737/sr=1-34/ref=sr_1_34/103-0020474-0211826?v=glance

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