From Rough & Tumble:
A Robert Novak piece suggesting that the race is a dead heat:

The nightly tracking poll taken for the California Teachers Association, made available to Republicans last Friday morning, was startling. Thursday night’s telephone interviews about the race for governor showed beleaguered Republican candidate Bill Simon leading Democratic Gov. Gray Davis 34.2 percent to 33.7 percent. The three-day tracking roll gave Davis a mere 2.7 percentage point lead.
Those numbers collide with Democratic surveys that show a double-digit lead for Davis.

He goes on to outline the tactical issues this presents for Bush … to come out and campaign, and maybe pull off an immense upset, or stay out rather than risk tarring his reputation with a Democratic blowout.
The losers are, as usual, those of us who live in California. His comments about Davis couldn’t ring more true:

Diluting these immense advantages, Davis is undoubtedly the most unpopular governor of California that anybody can remember. Prominent Democrats privately express contempt for him as a relentless fund-raiser without principles. One well-known elected government official told me he had endorsed Davis as far back as the 1998 Democratic primary but now considers him ”another Nixon.” He rages that Simon is about to be wiped out, propelling Davis into the White House. He plans to vote for Green Party candidate Peter Miguel Camejo.

As do I.
And while I await my critical missive from Ann, fighting the good fight for the local Dems, the rubbernecker in me hopes for a dramatic Election Day.
The Times this weekend buried a potential bombshell in the race, as convicted influence-peddler-to-the-stars Mark Nathanson’s 1993 statements are due to be released.

In a ruling that could embarrass Gov. Gray Davis in the final days of his re-election campaign, the U.S. Supreme Court has cleared the way for the release of a corrupt state official’s secret assertions about a decade-old bribery scandal at the California Coastal Commission.
En route to federal prison in 1993, Mark Nathanson, a Beverly Hills business executive who had confessed to orchestrating a $734,000 bribes-for- permits scheme while serving as a coastal commissioner, offered information about a state official with whom he said he worked to get campaign contributions from commission applicants, court records show.
Prosecutors dismissed Nathanson as a liar and refused to cut a deal, and he wound up serving three years in prison. Two letters detailing his allegations were sealed for years by a federal judge, then made public only in heavily censored form.
But on Oct. 7, the Supreme Court refused to hear a last-ditch plea to keep the documents secret and their release is believed imminent.
The timing is terrible for the official whom sources familiar with the case say Nathanson accused — Davis, then the state controller, and now a governor running for re-election.

Stay tuned, folks, it may turn out to be a ballgame.
I just wish I could care more about the outcome.