Like most people, I read the news in a kind of emotional spin cycle of pride, grief, anxiety, determination and wonder. And then every so often I manage to change my perspective, and grasp at something that amuses me. Usually it’s dark amusement these days, but it’s amusement nonetheless.
Recently, it’s been the litany from those who opposed the war in the first place who now trip over themselves to tell us how badly it’s going. They seize on the casualties and delays to explain that if we’re not actually losing the war, we’re certainly approaching a stalemate.
And, thinking about the misperception of risk in this, I manage a dry chuckle.
See, it’s like this.
The population of South-Central Los Angeles is about 300,000, last time I checked. Goes up and down as you define neighborhoods in and out.
Last year there were over 250 murders there.
Two hundred and fifty people died. Moms, dads, kids, grandparents, teenagers. Going to the grocery store. Selling groceries. Leaving church. (Yeah, some were selling drugs.)
That’s about twenty deaths a month, a little over two every three days.
In one neighborhood.
In all of California, we had about 2,066 murders (including non negligent manslaughter) in 2000. The total population of California in 2000 was about 38 million (as compared to an estimated population of Iraq of 29 million). That’s about five and a half deaths a day.
In one state.
Based on the list of deaths in Fox News, we suffered 43 deaths…including hostile action and accidents from March 20 to March 29. Ten days, 43 deaths. Each one a tragedy, as are the deaths here in California. Four and some tragedies per day.
So what does this tell us?
That in a country about the size of California, in a FREAKING WAR ZONE, the daily number of deaths among our soldiers is comparable to the daily number of murders in California as a whole. If I were to pull out the accidents from the war deaths…14 of them…there are fewer war deaths than murders. (Note: I know that some Iraqis are dying as well, and that the rates per population are higher…)
Let’s use a real population as a comparison. Figure that the population of South-Central LA is roughly the population of the US forces (it’s probably close); it is roughly five times more dangerous to be a soldier in Iraq than to simply go out and buy groceries in South Central.
Does this detract from the courage of the troops in Iraq? Of course not. Does it mean there are too many murders here in California? Of course it does.
But before we panic at the ‘slaughter’ of our troops caught in a ‘quagmire’, let’s remember than in any group of a third of a million people, a certain number will die every day. Add heavy equipment and guns, and even with no hostile action, we will see a significant number of deaths.
And our troops have a whole army facing them, and in spite of it, they are being killed at a rate comparable to that of the average resident of neighborhoods in California.
Now, I’m not a military historian or a tactician. And there are some alternative ways to look at the data. But I will suggest that this suggests that the opposition our troops are facing … relative to their individual abilities, training, determination, technology, and tactics … isn’t doing a very good job of fighting them.
Look, these numbers aren’t exact. I’m pulling them from quick Google searches and public databases, and if I was going to hold them up, I’d need to do a lot of refinement and adjustments (correcting time bases, getting exact populations, etc. etc.).
But they aren’t off by an order of magnitude (factor of 10).
So the next time you read someone who tells you that we’re being fought to a stalemate, that the war is lasting too long and there are too many casualties…ask yourself how it can be true when one can look at these numbers and have them be even roughly comparable.
I can only think of one answer, and it is that the war is going pretty darn well from our side.
Let’s hope it keeps doing so.
And let us keep in mind that those deaths that statistics can dismiss are real, and that to the loved ones they leave behind, it is no consolation that only a few died if it is their daughter, son, wife, husband, mother or father who comes home under a flag.
It is no wonder the White House, Rummy & others trying to run this war of hype are using every tactic to have everyone focus on anything else but what really is the problem, which is closer to home than many are willing to think, let alone accept.
For those who have not come across it or otherwise already heard about it via other news services, check out the the article by Seymour Hersh published in the April 7th edition of the New Yorker Magazine that hit the news stands and online edition yesterday (Monday, March 31, 2003):
*The battle between Donald Rumfeld and the Pentagon*
In other news, has anyone heard that Google bought out *Metafilter*
yet?
AFD everyone!!!
So, Concerned-
Given the actual numbers, what’s your case that Rumsfeld was wrong?
A.L.
I find it interesting that you point out the total number of deaths in Iraq among our troops and compare it to murders among Californians. Given that some of the deaths in Iraq can be atributed to accidents which are unrelated to actual combat the numbers look even more encouraging if only by a slight degree.
You know, to me it was really obvious that 40 some deaths up to now was really very good…but I like you way of explaining it and will link to this I’m sure in my forthcoming arguments with my anti-war friends.
Great post!
Hell almost 100 died at the last great white concert alone. Not to be-little this tragedy or the value of any one life, but put it in perspective.
Thanks for a much-needed slice of perspective pie! We shall hork your praises from every mountaintop!
You should add in traffic deaths to the California total, as we’re counting the (high-fatality) helicopter accidents overseas…
Supposedly, the L.A. City Council has voted to strike the name ‘South-Central’ from all official documents, signs, etc. It will be replaced with just plain ol’ ‘South L.A.’ Janice Hahn was supposedly somehow involved. No link yet available.
I heard this on the John & Ken Show, but I don’t think it was an April 1 joke.
You are using a false comparison. For Iraq and California death rates to be equal, you have to compare like populations.
Compare: (from Information Please Almanac) Iraq – 168,753 sq mi, 158,000 Americans. California – 155,959 sq mi. 35 million Americans.
If we count allied soldiers only, combat deaths since May 1, over 65 deaths, you get around 1 death every 2 days for 158,000 people – the equivalent rate would be 200 murders every 2 days for a population of 35 million.
One could argue a more accurate comparison would be between a population with an equivalent armed role in society, like cops. Out of an estimated 850,000 cops there were 148 Officers killed in 2002. At the Iraq rate, it would be 748 killed per year. If cops were being slaughtered at a rate of one every two days, we’d call it a national crisis. BUT THEY AREN’T.
Anyway you slice it, this “Iraq is less dangerous than California” meme is bunk, futzing with disparate numbers to sell a lie.
Sorry softdog, I wasn’t comparing the murders/100,000 in California – I was comparing the ‘rate’, or number of murders per day or week…
But I did compare the murders/100,000 in South Central to the rate in Iraq…what’s your argument there?
A.L.
I am Californian, I am in the military on my fourth tour over here, and 3 have been in Iraq. You say there were 250 murders in So. Centrol in 2002 and compared it to Iraq. So lets really compare it! There has never been more the 150,000 US troops in Iraq. It’s 2005 and we are losing 809 (KIA) a year over here, and 6,618 wounded. That is 2.3 KIA and 18.13 WIA everyday. Now think, thats more than 3 times the # in So. Centrol, and So. Centrol has 2 times the population, (300,000).
Let’s take it futher. LA, the whole city of 3,900,000 people is 26 times the population of the US forces in Iraq. So to be the some LA would need 21,034 murders in one year to really be the same. If you lived in a city of 150,000 and had 2.3 murders and 18 people wounded a day. You’d shit yourself and then you’d move. I’ve lost friends here and we don’t need pussies who have never been in the service of their country making small or light of our deaths. “SO BLOW ME!”
TB – with all respect, I think you’re misrerading the post pretty badly, and would ask you to go back and read it again. Particularly, pay attention th these points:
bq. Let’s use a real population as a comparison. Figure that the population of South-Central LA is roughly the population of the US forces (it’s probably close); it is roughly five times more dangerous to be a soldier in Iraq than to simply go out and buy groceries in South Central.
bq. Does this detract from the courage of the troops in Iraq? Of course not. Does it mean there are too many murders here in California? Of course it does.
bq. But before we panic at the ‘slaughter’ of our troops caught in a ‘quagmire’, let’s remember than in any group of a third of a million people, a certain number will die every day. Add heavy equipment and guns, and even with no hostile action, we will see a significant number of deaths.
bq. And our troops have a whole army facing them, and in spite of it, they are being killed at a rate comparable to that of the average resident of neighborhoods in California.
bq. Now, I’m not a military historian or a tactician. And there are some alternative ways to look at the data. But I will suggest that this suggests that the opposition our troops are facing … relative to their individual abilities, training, determination, technology, and tactics … isn’t doing a very good job of fighting them.
A.L.