Work and election stuff all day, and off to an election-eve event.
But I saw something while scanning the blogs I thought more people should see.
Via Global Voices, I got linked to the blog of Palestinian Daoud Kuttab, who discusses the internal implications of the referendum being called by Abbas.
Abbas’ referendum has exposed a simmering split within the Islamic resistance movement, which Hamas tried to keep behind the scenes. It has shown at least three different positions vis-à-vis recognition of
Israel. Ironically, it turns out that the most moderate position within Hamas belongs to those in prison; those in the bigger prison of occupation and siege are not as moderate and those completely free in Syria are the most radical.A deeper look reveals the obvious. Everyone knows that the balance of forces is not in favour of the Palestinians. So the differences of opinion are often focused on accepting a compromise now or waiting for the possibility of a better deal later; optimists hope the balance of forces will redress in the Palestinians’ favour. The more restrictive the conditions people live in the more they see the need for short-term relief and not just long-term dreams.
Hamas’ leaders in Damascus can wait for a long time because their daily lives are not affected by occupation, siege and imprisonment. There is an appropriate Arabic proverb. “Those who are feeling the whip are not like those counting the number of flogs.”
There is an even more important reason why prisoners and those under occupation have a more pragmatic point of view. A quick look at the Palestinian and Arab positions over the past half a century does not give much hope that things will be any better in 10 or 20 years. On the contrary, an honest look will show an erosion of the political programme. What we accept today (the 1967 borders) we rejected some time ago, and so on. Therefore, prisoners, whether behind bars or behind checkpoints, are not willing to waste their lives waiting five or ten years for their leaders to accept what they are rejecting now.
Interesting, and a blog worth keeping track of.
The terms are:
1. Long term truce
2. Right of return
3. Return to ’67 borders
#1 might be acceptable to the Israelis.
#2 and #3 are non starters.
The Palis are always negotiating the last deal.
They need to read Omar Khyam about time.
I might add that recognition of Israel is implied. This will not work either.
There is no acceptance of a two state solution.
This is not a settlement of issues. It is just a break in the fighting to regroup.
An analogy – it is equivalent to Osama’s poffered truces.
Let’s see.
Camp David 2000? Taba 2001?
Never happened.
Those suckers got air-brushed out of history ages ago.
But c’mon baby, let’s do the Hudna. (That oughtta do the trick.)
I read on another blog the operative paragraph in the prisoner arranged referendum. The words are so weasely as to be meaningless. The negotiators will love it. Look for lots of photo ops.
Having read “the document”:http://www.jmcc.org/documents/prisoners.htm several times, I don’t see where it implies any recognition of Israel. It specifically does not say that, if all of the things demanded listed were to be given, the conflict would be over.
It also stipulates that the proposed ‘unified resistance front’ would use Gaza as a base to ‘liberate’ territory, to use ‘security forces’ to fight the IDF, to continue terrorism inside and outisde the Green Line…
My first reaction was that pragmatism isn’t the same as moderation, but this stuff isn’t even moderate.
Guys, I think you’re misisng the point. There is a Palestinian movement which is getting tired of the whole thing, and wants it to be over. Abbas has just played his hand brilliantly and now that movement may get a voice. That’s a good thing…
A.L.
Or, AL, Abbas, whose Fatah elements still carry out attacks, has figured out that this is a lever to potentially reverse the latest election…
#5 Colt,
The implied recognition is oh so subtle.
You see these folks will have to, if the referendum passes, negotiate with some “entity” for implimentation.
A.L. you always have so much faith in the face of experience and reason. How do you do it?
bq. There is a Palestinian movement which is getting tired of the whole thing
Who are you referring to? Surely not the jailed terrorists, or Abbas. I don’t doubt that there are elements within palestinan society who want peace, but this doesn’t appear to be an instance of those elements showing themselves.
getting tired of the whole thing
Anyone who thinks they’re getting tired doesn’t have a clue as to what’s going on. Or what’s been going on for the past six (actually 13, actually 58) years.
Or what the Palestinian goals are.
Arms and ammunition continue to pour into the Gaza Strip. Hizbullah is ready on the northern border and while the missiles continue to be fired from Gaza into the perimeter settlements and towns, and suicide attacks are planned from the West Bank, all are basically waiting for Iran to be able to shift into brinksmanship mode big time.
It’s a fight to the finish. And the Palestinians following in the footsteps of Arafat’s precious leadership are absolutely convinced that Israel’s hands are tied.
They may be right. Or they might be delusional (it won’t be the first time). Time will tell (and how much time passes may well depend on Iran).
What is certain is that the attrition is taking its toll on Israeli society—and continues to earn Palestinians millions in aid (and sympathy). That poor, poor people! Who haven’t yet succeeded in erasing the Zionist Entity.
No, they’re not tired. They’re just revving up, actually.
And the progressives and optimistists and humanists are doing their best trying to encourage the Palestinians that the latter are not delusional.
After all, we all know that one person’s delusions are merely another’s truth….