Calpundit has two good posts up on liberalism and historic cycles; I want to send you over to take a look at them and think about what he says.
His first post is about the fact – and I agree that it’s a fact – that elements of ‘New Deal liberal’ politics and policies are so embedded in our political nature that, like fish and water, we no longer see them.
I don’t think the left is doing quite as well as he projects (as far as gun laws go, people like me are happier this decade than we’ve been in a while, and while GWB is expanding the state, the beneficiaries seem more to be large corporations than small business or individuals).His second post is truly intriguing. He raises the question of what the next progressive wave will look like. He says:
None of this is to say that these issues from previous progressive eras are dead. They aren’t: healthcare, for example, is likely to be a significant issue in the coming decade. At the same time, however, they aren’t likely to be the enormous drivers of social change that they have been in the past.
But if the big issue of the next progressive era isn’t labor, the social safety net, or individual rights, what will it be? Today, in hindsight, we can see Truman’s integration of the armed forces and Jackie Robinson’s debut with the Dodgers as the first faint stirrings of the great civil rights crusade that drove the 60s, but nobody in 1950 could have predicted that. Likewise, there is probably something simmering below the surface today that will drive the next big progressive era.
But what?
Exactly – what is the principle around which the left side of the house will coalesce? Hmmm…
Healthcare will probably be a big issue, but it will take a significant breakdown in the current system to reveal its shortcomings to the general population.
Basically we have a two tier system now- a private insurance/medicare/HMO level and a medicaid/county or state funded level providing for the uninsured. While the bottom tier care is characterized by long waits for emergent care, elective surgeries, limited medication coverage, etc., it still manages to provide a basic level of care. However, as limited resources strain the system, its ability to accomidate a sudden increase in demand decrease; now it is a stretch just to accomidate its normal utilization. Private services may pick up some of the slack, but they are under an increasing amount of strain themselves.
Any sort of major emergency in the future may overwhelm the current system. A large earthquake or epidemic may show our current limitations, and will be a focal point for action.
Freedom of information could be a biggy. Secrecy in government, opacity in corporate policy (and accounting), copyright and patent laws, etc. Right along with it, you get the ‘privacy’ issue.
Transfer payments and the ‘safety net’ as embodied by Social Security, Medicare, etc will not go away, and the demographic reality is that a generational clash between those who benefit from those services and those who will pay for them is inevitable.
Those are just some of my guesses. I don’t think either of today’s main political factions have a well-defined ideological position on either, so this could be interesting.
But maybe the next progressive wave won’t be coming from “the left side of the house.” Maybe it will come from the radical center, either this version or another, perhaps not yet articulated.
And maybe–in some permutation of the Cincinnatus or Lincoln model–it will come from some segment which isn’t even involved in politics at the moment.
And perhaps, instead of wondering where it will come from or what its organizing principle might be, we could instead ask ourselves what we can do to bring it about, and what we think it ought to look like.
As far I am concerned, the next big progressive cause is to bring liberalism to the wretched and oppressed of the earth.
How about something which is, at the moment, coming from the nominal Right: education reform. Public high schools are, in many places, essentially daycare for teens. School choice/fighting the unions/etc.
Better educational opportunities mean more to the poor than all the transfer payments ever made.
Michael nails it. Something most “liberals” (using the most elastic definition possible, mind you) are loath to admitt is that we have achieved most of the “liberal” vision in America. There are a few areas of concern left, namely homosexuality in society, decent healthcare for all, better education, to name a few. But most of it has been achieved. Now that our house is mostly secure, its time to fix up the rest other houses in the neighborhood. After all, the world cannot remain half slave and half free. Either it shall all be of the one, or of the other. Its time to carry the torch of liberty to every corner of the land, until Martin Luther King’s vision has come true: where every one, of every color and creed, and come to a table together and proclaim: Free at last, thank God Almighty, we are free at last.
The next big issues?
globaly:
The viability of the nation state under the impact of mass migration and terrorism
the crisis arising from the relative failure of democratic capitalism
domestically:
collapse of public insitutions(SS/medicare,education,public healthcare,etc) from the boomers and mass immigration and outsourcing of jobs,leading to crisis of legitimacy of our national political institutions which have repeatedly refused to deal with the issues mentioned above.
The post-modern world will resemble 1340 much more than it does 1840 or 1940.
For what it’s worth, my guess is that it will be some kind of response to a technological trend. I’m not sure what, of course….
Islam, people. Islam. That ancient evil will have to be turned. OR, we could all convert. There is no god but Allah and Mohammed is his prophet.
Salom.
I have something of a problem identifying the left with “progressive,” especially since the term emerged in reference to the Bull Moose. (Is that “Butch” or what?) So, to me there are two questons. The first is: “What will be the next big thing for the Left?” The other is: “What will be the next big thing for Progressives (of either party).”
The next big thing for the Left, according to what Marty Lipset has been saying for over a decade, is a radical bomb-throwing anarchist movement in the US. I think Marty is probably right.
The next big thing for Progressives is a bit more complicated. Right now if one does a factor analysis of all issues about which politically aware people hold opinions then the single item with he highest loading on a left/right orientation is health care. That single issue currently suffices to define the difference between left and right.
But it’s also an impasse politically. So, here, I think there’s an opportunity for a new “progressive movement” to resolve the impasse through some sort of innovation that simply takes the whole issue out of the single left/right dimension (factor). That could involve the creative use of gene therapy or some other medical breakthrough “jacknife” set of procedures that simplifies the practice of medicine and reduces costs. And/or it could involve the establishment of some alternative to conventional insurance, or insurance cooperatives, such as PUBCOPS where healthcare providers issue stock that’s owned by the people who are the patient base. In fact, the whole ESOP/PUBCOP concept could be the basis of a progressive reform movement projecting into a new political dimension that’s neither right nor left. (I’m not talking about a cooperative, which is a socialistic form of “common ownership.”)
It begs the question, doesn’t it? Will the next mass movement in America be progressive?
Socialism, the core of Progressivism, is intellectually in disarray. Even if the goals of the New Deal were worthy; the institutions erected to serve them have proven impractical. Progressive methods divorce reward from responsibility and that always leads to excess.
The next mass movement will be away from Socialism and Progressivism. President Bush has already reformed Medicare and is about to attack Social Security; he will do this through ownership. You will own your medical and retirement accounts– taxfree. You will purchase insurance from it. You will lay aside money for special needs. You are guarenteed that you will get no less than the current socialistic programs, and you might get more.
Everything that people liked about the New Deal will remain, but its form will change. It must change, because Medicare and Social Security have enormous unfunded liabilities. The waste in progressive institutions is staggering; not even a country as rich as America can afford them. Business regulations cost in excess of $400 Billion a year. Unnecessary litigation is above $200 Billion a year. And for what? To serve the Progressives hatred of business.
Progressive methods do not work. Public safety will be necessary, but different methods will be used to achieve it. We may not notice the change for decades, since the enormous debt from Medicare and Social Security has already occurred and must be paid off by young people paying into the government. It will take forty years for all current recepients to die off and for young people to be free. The plan is that they will have made enough money in stocks to offset their losses.
America cannot afford a new progressive wave. Where are they going to find enough suckers to pay for it?