Voting ^2

I was going to write about the LATimes op-ed by Ethan Rarik, acting director of the Center on Politics at the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (echoed by Mark Kleiman) that would gladly sacrifice my rights as a California voter to the well-being of the Democratic Party.

I was pretty outraged when Rarik wrote:

The big problem with Proposition 77, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s ballot measure to create a new system for drawing legislative and congressional boundaries, is that it’s much too fair.


Here’s why. I’m a Democrat, and while I don’t think that the nonpartisan redistricting would have much of an effect on the legislative majorities in the California statehouse (where Democrats are likely to keep control of both the Assembly and the Senate), I do think a nonpartisan redistricting could reduce the number of Democrats in California’s congressional delegation, lessening the chances that Democrats will ever be able to regain control of the House of Representatives.

If enacted, Proposition 77 would also rob California’s dominant Democrats of the power to dictate a partisan gerrymander after the 2010 census. I want Democrats to retain that ability, no matter how unseemly it is to say so. It’s not that I don’t want to be fair. I do. But why should California Democrats be fair to Republicans when they have no guarantee that Republicans in the rest of the country will behave likewise? I will support a nonpartisan redistricting of Democrat-dominated California on the same day I can be assured of similar fairness in Republican states.

Why am I outraged? Because Rarik is perfectly prepared to screw all California citizens rather than lose his partisan advantage. It’s not that we’re all in the same boat; it’s that he’d rather sink the boat than risk losing.

California politics is paralyzed (which is why we elected another B-movie star and keep doing these propositions) because we’ve institutionalized gridlock. Partisan gerrymandering has rendered the general election meaningless for legislators; the primary is what counts. And since the committed partisans – typically the most ideologically pure – control the levers of the local and state parties, the primaries are won by the most ideologically pure.

That’s why Brad Plumer’s criticism – while at least morally sound – is still off target.

This looks dubious. Under the second guideline there, the judges drawing the boundaries could end up packing the majority of urban voters into a few concentrated, ultra-Democratic districts. (The first guideline might, equally, pack Republicans into conservative “counties,” but I can’t tell without data, and am guessing this would be a smaller effect.) Schwarzenegger’s plan wouldn’t necessarily lead to more competitive districts either, as is widely hoped. Since “[j]udges must maximize the number of whole cities in each district,” you’d have a handful of ultra-safe single-city seats that would vote overwhelmingly Democratic. If you wanted more electoral competition, then you’d try to create a bunch of districts that, say, combined parts of “blue” urban areas with parts of “red” suburbs. Schwarzenegger’s plan does the exact opposite.

Now his plan would give representatives more “natural” regions to represent (i.e., it makes sense to represent a whole city rather than parts of two different regions), but that’s a different goal from either a) ensuring competitiveness or b) making sure that voters have anything like proportional representation in Congress, and should be sold as such. Plus it looks for all the world like a naked, calculated power grab, rather than a solid reform that just happens to hurt the Democrats. (I’d happily support the latter; not so much the former.)

The issue to Brad is that how many seats have a -D or a -R behind them is not only a consequence of fairness but is the primary metric of fairness. That seems senseless to me; I’m a Democrat, but I’m a Californian first.

The goal ought to be seats in which the ideologically pure are less likely to triumph. In which the compromisers, the folks who don’t think ‘moderation’ is a dirty word, have a chance to win.

I’m not at all sure I buy Plumer’s point that breaking district lines at existing political boundaries creates clear Democratic and Republican enclaves. I am sure that these will be less ‘ideologically pure’ than the gerrymandered seats we live with today – and thus that we will get more legislators who are familiar with the art of compromise. I’m equally sure that there is a way to model districts that would optimize the electoral balance between parties. But I’m equally sure that it would be incomprehensibly complex and opaque, and so as subject to manipulation as the BCS rankings.

Districts that reflect existing political boundaries are transparent and hard to manipulate; that’s a good thing.

I’ll be voting for Proposition 77; I’d like to bring actual politics back to California politics. Maybe we can start here and spread it around the country.

Update: Corrected the spelling of Brad Plummer’s name.

4 thoughts on “Voting ^2”

  1. Ask yourself AL what is really driving this?

    Democrats nationally and in California represent very leftist Urban districts. They tend to be either the Merlot Democrats of Howard Dean or impoverished minorities in urban areas.

    What do urban minorities get out Democrats?

    Simple, wealth transfers from middle class taxpayers to minorities, either in expanded state and local agencies (look around at the gender and ethnicity of the DMV clerks next time you are there) and various other boondoggles.

    What do the Merlot Democrats get out of the Democrats?

    Simple, wealth transfers to “creative class” urban playground cities like San Francisco, where families can’t afford to live but trustafarians can live in “hip, edgy” neighborhoods and cafes. BART is a good example of this.

    There are many local reasons why LA lacks a mass transit system such as BART (which btw I actually like and support) not the least of which is the Bus Riders Union mantra “Rail is racist!” but one of the big statewide reasons is the lack of enough Democrats early in the process (early 1970s) when state money was being allocated among the urban areas for trustafarian priorities. The exodus of white collar defense professionals (epitomized by Michael Douglas in Falling Down) to other states has transformed the LA area into something akin to the Bay Area. LOTS of very poor minorities trapped in decaying areas; and wealthy trust fund folks.

    AL this is why Dems and Dem thinkers oppose any change; it would break the lock that urban areas have on State money and allow suburbanites and exurbanites a larger say in how money was spent.

    In short, follow the money.

  2. As a Peninsula native and non-BART/non-“light-rail” rider I have to agree totally with Jim’s funding analysis, and we’re going to vote in support of Prop. 77 and the Govenator. I’d like to see just about the whole Legislature taken out behind the woodshed for a sound thrashing – it would just be fun to watch anyhow, and we could probably sell tickets.

  3. We went over this before.

    So, in 2012, California is sending a delegation that’s 52 percent Democratic, while Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and Texas are sending delegations that are 2/3 Republican. Look at the Michigan Legislature and Congressional delegation right now—all controlled by the GOP in a state where the Governor and both Senators are Democrats.

    If you can show me one single major Prop 77 advocate who has endorsed “Reform Ohio Now” or a similar initiative in a Republican state, then I’ll change my vote. Otherwise, this is just a game of “Heads We Win, Tails You Lose”. Playing that is the equivalent of unilateral disarmament or absolute pacifism, not otherwise popular philosophies at this site.

    The most aggravating part is that after the Democrats get snowed in the gerrymandered 2012 election, Armed Liberal and friends will announce it’s because some Democrats continued to suggest it was time to get our 150,000 troops out of Iraq.

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